000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260321
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU APR 26 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 04N77W TO 05N87W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS 
FROM 05N87W TO 08N95W TO 05N121W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF TROUGH E OF 85W...AND WITHIN
90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 118W.

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONE NEAR 31N124W IS EMBEDDED IN BROAD UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 16N137W...AND TRAILS A SURFACE COLD 
FRONT TO AROUND 21N124W. ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME E OF 
THE TROUGH AXIS IS SPREADING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER BAJA CALIF 
AND NW MEXICO. MODERATE DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT ALONG 06N E OF 
120W IS ENHANCING SCATTERED CONVECTION ALL ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS.

WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 1300 UTC SHOWED 20-25 KT WINDS WITH
THE LOW...BUT LATEST OSCAT DATA AT 2030 UTC SHOWED WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER NEAR SAN DIEGO 
WITHIN THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS...AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT
AROUND THE REMNANT LOW BY THU MORNING. NW SWELL TO 10 FT N OF 23N
W OF 128W WILL SUBSIDE TO 7-8 FT BY THU AFTERNOON. A WEAKENING 
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 30N130W THU EVENING THEN DISSIPATE N OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA. A HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD THU NIGHT AND 
FRI CENTERED NEAR 33N135W. AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS THE PRES 
GRADIENT ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA AND W COAST OF MEXICO WILL 
INTENSIFY...ALLOWING FRESH NW WINDS TO DEVELOP WITHIN 120 NM W 
OF BAJA CALIF WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 8-9 FT BY FRI NIGHT.

GAP WINDS...
OSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 1900 UTC SHOWED N-NE WINDS 20 KT OR 
LESS FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT AND 8 FT THU AFTERNOON.

OSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 1720 UTC SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG E-NE 
WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...AND FRESH N-NE WINDS IN THE GULF 
OF PANAMA. 20-25 KT WINDS AND 8 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.

$$
MUNDELL