000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252125
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED APR 25 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N77W TO 04N84W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 
04N84W TO 07N96W TO 04N121W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS E OF 110W... 
AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONE NEAR 28N129W IS EMBEDDED IN BROAD UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 16N137W. ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE 
PLUME E OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS SPREADING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER 
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE EVIDENT FROM 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL BRING A BRIEF BURST OF ENERGY INTO THE 
AREA OF LOW PRES. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LONG 
WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N122W TO 21N126W. MODERATE DIFFLUENT 
PATTERN ALOFT ALONG 06N E OF 120W ENHANCES SCATTERED CONVECTION 
ALL ALONG ITCZ AXIS.

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER NEAR 28N127W WITHIN 
THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS...AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT AROUND
THE REMNANT LOW BY THU MORNING. NW SWELL TO 12-13 FT N OF 23N W 
OF 128W WILL SUBSIDE TO 7-8 FT BY THU AFTERNOON. A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH 30N130W THU EVENING THEN DISSIPATE N OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA. A HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD THU NIGHT AND FRI 
CENTERED NEAR 33N135W. AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS THE PRES GRADIENT 
ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA AND W COAST OF MEXICO WILL INTENSIFY...
ALLOWING FRESH NW WINDS TO DEVELOP WITHIN 120 NM W OF BAJA CALIF
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 8-9 FT BY FRI NIGHT.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N-NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FUNNELING THROUGH
THE CHIVELA PASS INTO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THU MORNING... 
THEN DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT THU AFTERNOON.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG E-NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE OVER GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS ARE LIKELY DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH THU MORNING. 

$$
MUNDELL