000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240959 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE APR 24 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... NO MONSOON TROUGH CLEARLY EVIDENT. ITCZ AXIS FROM 04N86W TO 06N98W TO 05N106W TO 05N118W TO 03N126W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N AND 60 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND 124W. ...DISCUSSION... A STRONG AND DEEP LAYERED CUT OFF LOW IS CENTERED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 33N133W AND EXTENDS A TROUGH ALOFT S-SW TO 24N135W THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TO 18N145W. BROAD RIDGING CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA ALOFT N OF 14N. BROADLY DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION N OF 09N AND E OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO 120W...WITH THE FLOW SPLIT BETWEEN SOUTHERN STREAM WESTERLIES CENTERED ALONG 15N AND SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CUT OFF LOW. THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE 80-100 KT SOUTHERN STREAM JET LIES NEAR A MAXIMA OF PRECIPITABLE WATER THAT COINCIDES WITH A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 06N131W TO 16N128W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 210 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS...WITH MULTI LAYERED UPPER MOISTURE AND CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM THIS AREA E TO 110W. FARTHER SOUTH...AN UPPER LEVEL EQUATORIAL LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR 01N107W WITH TROUGH AXIS TO 07N115W. A RIDGE AXIS LIES TO ITS EAST ALONG 08N EAST OF 112W. UPPER FLOW TO THE E OF THE LOW AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE ACROSS THIS AREA ARE COMBINING TO MAINTAIN THIS RIDGING ALOFT. AT LOWER LEVELS...A 1019 MB HIGH PRES SYSTEM IS CENTERED NEAR 26N119W. THE HIGH HAS BEEN WEAKENED BY THE TROUGHING ALOFT TO ITS W. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A WEAK PRES GRADIENT TO THE S AND TRADE WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT OVER THE FORECAST AREA N OF THE ITCZ. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUT OFF LOW ALOFT EXTENDS FROM 30N127W TO 19N140W. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO 25 KT LIE OVER FAR NORTHWEST WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT BASED ON RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. THE DEEP LAYER LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH WED...CARRYING THE FRONT EASTWARD WITH IT. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OVER NORTHERN WATERS TO THE WEST OF THE SURFACE LOW...WITH STRONG WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH TUE DIMINISHING TO FRESH ON WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO THE 10-15 FT RANGE BEHIND THE FRONT TOMORROW BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND A STRONG LATE SEASON COLD FRONT HAS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO RESULTING IN WINDS TO GALE FORCE THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. AN 0551 UTC LOW RESOLUTION OSCAT PASS CAPTURED WINDS TO 40 KT JUST DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING S-SW TO NEAR 14N. GALES WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRES SYSTEM SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE SOUTHERN MIGRATION OF THE HIGH PRES SYSTEM IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS INCREASED THE PRES GRADIENT OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. YIELDING A SMALL AREA OF FRESH WINDS NEAR 20 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FRESH TO STRONG DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GULF OF PANAMA...THE PRES GRADIENT OVER CENTRAL AMERICA HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE NORTHERLY FLOW TO 20 KT TO FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE CARIBBEAN. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED EVENING. OUTSIDE OF THESE GAP WINDS...THE GENERAL WIND FLOW E OF 100W REMAINS LIGHT TO MODERATE...WITH A WELL ESTABLISHED ITCZ. LIGHT SWLY WINDS ARE FOUND S OF 05N E OF 86W. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME IN AGREEMENT THAT THE EPAC MONSOON TROUGH WILL BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED E OF 110W BY FRI. $$ STRIPLING