000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180952
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED APR 18 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N85W TO 06N90W. THE INTERTROPICAL 
CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N90W TO 07N104W THEN 
RESUMES FROM 07N110W TO 03N125W TO 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60-120 NM S OF THE 
ITCZ BETWEEN 116W AND 120W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30-60 
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 120W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

NEARLY STATIONARY 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 
30N138W WITH A BROAD RIDGE REACHING FROM THE HIGH CENTER SE TO 
NEAR 18N114W. AN AREA OF FRESH NE TRADE WINDS IS LOCATED S OF 
THE RIDGE FROM 05N TO 19N W OF 125W. THESE FRESH WINDS WILL 
GRADUALLY CONTRACT COVERING ONLY A SMALL AREA FROM 06N TO 13N W 
OF 133W BY THU NIGHT. NW SWELL OF 8-9 FT COVERS THE REMAINDER OF 
THE WATERS S OF 23N W OF A LINE FROM 23N120W TO 00N105W. THIS 
SWELL WILL DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

A SMALL AREA OF FRESH NW-N WINDS IS N OF 28N BETWEEN 118W AND 
123W BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE 
CALIFORNIA DESERT. NW SWELL OF 8-10 FT COVERS THIS SAME AREA. 
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THESE WATERS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS 
WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN EXPECTED OVER 
THE REGION.

NORTHERLY 20-30 KT WINDS ARE FUNNELING SOUTHWARD FROM THE 
CHIVELA PASS TO ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FOLLOWING A COLD 
FRONTAL PASSAGE TO THE N IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THESE WINDS WILL 
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY THU EVENING WITH WINDS 
BECOMING SOUTHERLY IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS LOW PRES AND AN 
ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOP ALONG THE MEXICO/GULF OF MEXICO 
COASTLINE TO THE N OF THE AREA.

$$
LEWITSKY