000 AXPZ20 KNHC 170253 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON APR 16 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0130 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... ITCZ AXIS FROM 03N100W TO 07N108W TO 03N126W TO 03.5N132W TO 03N140W. NO MONSOON TROUGH APPARENT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90 NM S AND 150 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 108W AND 128W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS W OF 128W. ...DISCUSSION... AT UPPER LEVELS...NEARLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA N OF 10N THIS EVENING. AN ELONGATED NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH WAS SWINGING E INTO THE PACIFIC NW COAST OF THE U.S. WITH TROUGH TRAILING SW TO THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA AND WEAKENING. A LINGERING MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH WAS JUST AHEAD OF THIS TROUGHING...FROM 30N130W TO 24N152W. FROM 24N S TO 10N...A VERY BROAD AND NEARLY FLAT RIDGE-TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN PREVAILS BETWEEN 85W AND 145W...WITH MIDDLE/UPPER TROUGH ALONG 113W/114W AND UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 11.5N90W. BROAD LLVL CONVERGENCE OCCURRING ALONG AND N OF THE ITCZ W OF 110W CONTINUED TO INDUCE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION DESCRIBED ABOVE...AND WAS AIDING IN MAINTAINING UPPER RIDGING OVERHEAD OF THIS ACTIVE CONVECTION. THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN N OF 24N WILL NUDGE THE BROAD TROUGH ALONG 113W/114W E AND NE OVER THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE ALONG 90W DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...WITH LITTLE CHANGES IN THE PATTERN OTHERWISE S OF 24N. AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRES DOMINATES THE AREA W OF 108W...WITH RIDGE CENTERED ON A NEARLY STATIONARY 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 30N135W. LOW PRES OVER INTERIOR MEXICO IS ENHANCING NW WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 26N AND W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. S OF THE RIDGE...A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADE WINDS IS LOCATED FROM 06N TO 22N W OF 130W AND FROM 06N TO 15N BETWEEN 126W AND 130W...WHERE SEAS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 8-1O FT WITH NW SWELL. THE NW SWELL WILL FADE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS LEADING TO A SLOW SUBSIDING TREND ACROSS THE REGION. AN AREA OF 8-10 FT SEAS IS LOCATED SW OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM 16N TO 26N...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF 9-11 FT SEAS IS LOCATED IN THE DEEP TROPICS FROM 14N TO 24N W OF 130W. EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. HIGH PRES RIDGE NEAR 30N133W WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND DEFLECT A WEAKENING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STALLING AND WEAKENING JUST NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. LOW PRES OVER MEXICO WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ON TUE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT WITHIN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 27N TO PRODUCE NWLY WINDS 20-25 KT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE FALLING BELOW 20 KT TUE. WHILE WINDS DIMINISH OVER THE ENTIRE NE PORTION. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS WILL CONTINUE S OF 20N W OF 130W...WITH SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 8-10 FT BY LATE TUE. A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA TUE NIGHT WITH NW WINDS INCREASING TO 25 KT N OF 30N. NNW SWELL TO 9 FT AND NLY WINDS TO 20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED N OF 27N BETWEEN 118W AND 125W BY WED MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED FROM HIGH PRES OVER INTERIOR MEXICO AND LOW PRES IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC SW OF CENTRAL AMERICA. $$ STRIPLING 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 170253 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON APR 16 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0130 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... ITCZ AXIS FROM 03N100W TO 07N108W TO 03N126W TO 03.5N132W TO 03N140W. NO MONSOON TROUGH APPARENT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90 NM S AND 150 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 108W AND 128W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS W OF 128W. ...DISCUSSION... AT UPPER LEVELS...NEARLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA N OF 10N THIS EVENING. AN ELONGATED NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH WAS SWINGING E INTO THE PACIFIC NW COAST OF THE U.S. WITH TROUGH TRAILING SW TO THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA AND WEAKENING. A LINGERING MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH WAS JUST AHEAD OF THIS TROUGHING...FROM 30N130W TO 24N152W. FROM 24N S TO 10N...A VERY BROAD AND NEARLY FLAT RIDGE-TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN PREVAILS BETWEEN 85W AND 145W...WITH MIDDLE/UPPER TROUGH ALONG 113W/114W AND UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 11.5N90W. BROAD LLVL CONVERGENCE OCCURRING ALONG AND N OF THE ITCZ W OF 110W CONTINUED TO INDUCE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION DESCRIBED ABOVE...AND WAS AIDING IN MAINTAINING UPPER RIDGING OVERHEAD OF THIS ACTIVE CONVECTION. THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN N OF 24N WILL NUDGE THE BROAD TROUGH ALONG 113W/114W E AND NE OVER THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE ALONG 90W DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...WITH LITTLE CHANGES IN THE PATTERN OTHERWISE S OF 24N. AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRES DOMINATES THE AREA W OF 108W...WITH RIDGE CENTERED ON A NEARLY STATIONARY 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 30N135W. LOW PRES OVER INTERIOR MEXICO IS ENHANCING NW WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 26N AND W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. S OF THE RIDGE...A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADE WINDS IS LOCATED FROM 06N TO 22N W OF 130W AND FROM 06N TO 15N BETWEEN 126W AND 130W...WHERE SEAS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 8-1O FT WITH NW SWELL. THE NW SWELL WILL FADE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS LEADING TO A SLOW SUBSIDING TREND ACROSS THE REGION. AN AREA OF 8-10 FT SEAS IS LOCATED SW OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM 16N TO 26N...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF 9-11 FT SEAS IS LOCATED IN THE DEEP TROPICS FROM 14N TO 24N W OF 130W. EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. HIGH PRES RIDGE NEAR 30N133W WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND DEFLECT A WEAKENING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STALLING AND WEAKENING JUST NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. LOW PRES OVER MEXICO WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ON TUE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT WITHIN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 27N TO PRODUCE NWLY WINDS 20-25 KT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE FALLING BELOW 20 KT TUE. WHILE WINDS DIMINISH OVER THE ENTIRE NE PORTION. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS WILL CONTINUE S OF 20N W OF 130W...WITH SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 8-10 FT BY LATE TUE. A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA TUE NIGHT WITH NW WINDS INCREASING TO 25 KT N OF 30N. NNW SWELL TO 9 FT AND NLY WINDS TO 20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED N OF 27N BETWEEN 118W AND 125W BY WED MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED FROM HIGH PRES OVER INTERIOR MEXICO AND LOW PRES IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC SW OF CENTRAL AMERICA. $$ STRIPLING