000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160941
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN APR 15 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N108W TO 
03N120W TO 02N130W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 90-120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 
120W...AND ALSO FROM 04N TO 06N BETWEEN 121W AND 124W.

...DISCUSSION...

1028 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 30N133W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING TO 12N105W. DEEP LOW PRES OVER INTERIOR MEXICO 
COMBINED WITH THE RIDGING IS RESULTING IN A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT 
OVER THE NW PORTION OF MEXICO INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
FROM 26N TO 29N AND N OF 25N WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WHERE A HIGH-RESOLUTION ASCAT 
SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS. THESE WINDS 
ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS AS THE LOW OVER MEXICO DISSIPATES AND IS EVENTUALLY 
REPLACED BY HIGH PRES.

AN AREA OF FRESH TRADES COVERS THE WATERS FROM 06N TO 22N W OF 
120W AS SAMPLED BY A 0615 UTC ASCAT PASS...BETWEEN THE RIDGING 
MENTIONED ABOVE AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ TO THE 
S. THESE TRADES WILL NOT VARY MUCH THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS 
THE HIGH AND RIDGING TO THE N-NE HOLD NEARLY STEADY.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL OF 8-11 FT WITH PEAK WAVE PERIODS OF 15-17 
SECONDS COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS W OF 
110W. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECAY THROUGH TUE NIGHT WHILE A 
NEW SET OF 8-9 FT SWELLS ARRIVES ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 22N 
TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR 20-25 KT NORTHERLY 
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY LATE TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRES 
DEVELOPS OVER INTERIOR MEXICO WITH LOWER PRES S-SE OF THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA.

$$
LEWITSKY