000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140936
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT APR 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N102W TO 
04N115W TO 03N125W TO 03N138W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90-180 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 110W AND 
124W...AND ALSO WITHIN 120-180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ 
BETWEEN 124W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N115W TO 26N120W TO 24N127W. FRESH 
WINDS THAT EARLIER WERE PRECEDING THE FRONT W OF THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10-15 KT AS INDICATED BY 
A 0516 UTC ASCAT PASS. THIS SAME SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED FRESH 
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT W TO 120W. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL OF 8-15 
FT COVERS THE WATERS N OF 20N AND W OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL 
REACH FROM 24N111W TO 20N120W WHILE WEAKENING SAT NIGHT...THEN 
WILL DISSIPATE BY SUN NIGHT. FRESH WINDS WILL BECOME CONFINED TO 
THE AREA N OF 23N WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA BY SUN NIGHT...WHILE THE NW SWELL GRADUALLY DECAYS TO 
8-11 FT. 

THE FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE IS INDUCING 20-30 KT SW-W WINDS IN THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 29N AS CAPTURED BY THE SAME ASCAT PASS. 
THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT LATER TODAY AS THE 
FRONT CONTINUES EASTWARD. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN 
COMMENCE IN THE GULF FROM 26N TO 29N BY SUN NIGHT AS AN INVERTED 
SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE 
GULF WITH HIGH PRES SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA FROM THE W-NW.

FRESH NE TRADES EXIST FROM 04N TO 20N W OF 120W ALONG WITH 8-11 
FT CONFUSED SEAS IN MIXED NE...NW AND SW SWELL. THIS AREA OF 
TRADES AND SEAS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH IN STRENGTH OR AREAL 
COVERAGE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS SURFACE HIGH PRES REMAINS 
STRETCHED OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS...WITH LOWER PRES 
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ACTIVE ITCZ PERSISTING TO THE S OF THE TRADES.

$$
LEWITSKY