000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132116
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI APR 13 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N89W TO 03N96W TO 03N103W. THE 
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N103W TO 04N116W TO 01N135W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM N OF ITCZ W OF 
117W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF 
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND 102W. 

...DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDING THROUGH 
32N120W TO 27N128W DISSIPATING TO 27N137W. THIS FRONT IS 
BRINGING IN SOME FRESH TO STRONG NW BREEZE CONDITIONS WEST OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. AHEAD OF THE 
FRONT...FRESH TO STRONG SW BREEZE WILL AFFECT THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA NORTH OF 29N. THIS FRONT IS ALSO ACCOMPANIED BY 
LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL AFFECTING THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION CORNER 
OF THE DISCUSSIONS AREA. SEAS OF 12 TO 15 FT ARE OCCURRING NW OF 
A LINE FROM 30N127W TO 27N140W DUE IN PART TO A LARGE UPWIND 
FETCH OF NW WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF A SURFACE CYCLONE N OF THE 
AREA AND THE FRONT. THIS LARGE SWELL WILL PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD 
BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT DAY BUT WILL NOT EXTEND SOUTH OF 
ABOUT 22N. BY SUNDAY...THIS NW SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH. 
THE ECWMF AND UKMET-BASED WAVEWATCH MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE 
AGGRESSIVE IN MORE QUICKLY BRINGING THROUGH AND MAINTAINING THE 
12 FOOT AND HIGHER SEAS THAN THE GFS TODAY AND TOMORROW MORNING. 
AS SEAS DIMINISH LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE GFS MAINTAINS 
THE SEAS SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE 
TYPICAL HIGH BIAS OF THE GFS FOR STEADY STATE AND DIMINISHING 
SEAS...THE FORECAST IS A BIT ABOVE THE GFS-BASED WAVEWATCH TODAY 
BUT BELOW IT AFTERWORDS.  

NE TRADEWINDS OF A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE ARE OCCURRING W OF 
120W BETWEEN 05N AND 18N ALONG WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT.  THESE 
WILL CONTRACT WESTWARD AND SLIGHTLY DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT TWO 
DAYS.

NO GAP WIND EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

NO GALE FORCE WIND EVENTS NOR ANY 12 FOOT SEAS...AFTER THE 
CURRENT SEAS SUBSIDE BY SUNDAY...ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 
WEEK.

$$
PAW