000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131530
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI APR 13 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N87W TO 03N104W. THE ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM 03N104W TO 03N115W TO 01N135W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITHIN 180 NM N OF ITCZ W 
OF 115W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITHIN 180 NM 
S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 95W AND 102W. 

...DISCUSSION...

MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE THIS MORNING IS THE LONG-PERIOD NW 
SWELL AFFECTING THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF OUR AREA OF 
RESPONSIBILITY.  SEAS 12 TO 15 FT ARE OCCURRING NW OF A LINE 
FROM 30N135W TO 27N140W DUE TO A LARGE UPWIND FETCH OF NW WINDS 
ON THE WEST SIDE OF A SURFACE CYCLONE AND FRONT WHICH IS 
AFFECTING CALIFORNIA.  THIS LARGE SWELL WILL PUSH EASTWARD 
TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT DAY BUT WILL NOT EXTEND 
SOUTH OF ABOUT 22N.  BY SUNDAY...THIS NW SWELL WILL GRADUALLY 
DIMINISH.  THE ECWMF AND UKMET-BASED WAVEWATCH MODELS ARE 
SOMEWHAT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN MORE QUICKLY BRINGING THROUGH AND 
MAINTAINING THE 12 FOOT AND HIGHER SEAS THAN THE GFS TODAY AND 
TOMORROW MORNING.  AS SEAS DIMINISH LATE SATURDAY AND 
SUNDAY...THE GFS MAINTAINS THE SEAS SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER THAN 
THE OTHER GUIDANCE.  GIVEN THE TYPICAL HIGH BIAS OF THE GFS FOR  
STEADY STATE AND DIMINISHING SEAS...THE FORECAST IS A BIT ABOVE 
THE GFS-BASED WAVEWATCH TODAY BUT BELOW IT AFTERWORDS.  

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY JUST NORTH OF OUR 
AREA...WILL ALSO BRING IN SOME FRESH TO STRONG NW BREEZE 
CONDITIONS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  AHEAD 
OF THE FRONT...FRESH TO STRONG NW BREEZE WILL AFFECT THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA NORTH OF 29N.

NE TRADEWINDS OF A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE ARE OCCURRING W OF 
120W BETWEEN 05N AND 15N ALONG WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT.  THESE 
WILL CONTRACT WESTWARD AND SLIGHTLY DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT TWO 
DAYS.

NO GAP WIND EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

NO GALE FORCE WIND EVENTS NOR ANY 12 FOOT SEAS...AFTER THE 
CURRENT ONE DISSIPATES BY SUNDAY...ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 
WEEK.

$$
LANDSEA