000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112203
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED APR 11 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N81W TO 06N88W. MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
04N94W TO 04N105W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N105W TO 03N123W TO 
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS PRESENT WITHIN 180 NM N OF ITCZ E 
OF 88W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS PRESENT WITHIN 120 NM OF ITCZ 
BETWEEN 110W AND 125W.

DISCUSSION...
RELATIVELY QUIET IN THE NE PACIFIC THIS AFTERNOON AS NO GALES 
ARE PRESENT CURRENTLY...NOR ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

A SURFACE 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED AT 30N154W IS DOMINATING THE 
WEATHER IN THE REGION.  BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE ITCZ CLOSE TO 
THE EQUATOR...THE RESULTING PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING FRESH 
NE TRADEWINDS FROM 03N TO 12N W OF 120W.  THESE SHOULD CONTINUE 
WITH LITTLE CHANGE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE EASTERN END OF THE HIGH 
PRESSURE AND A LOW CENTERED OVER N MEXICO IS CAUSING FRESH NW TO 
W WINDS JUST TO THE S AND W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THESE ALSO 
SHOULD CONTINUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH FRIDAY.

NW SWELL OF AT LEAST 12 FEET WILL BE REACHING THE NW CORNER OF 
OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING.  
THE ECMWF WAVEWATCH MODEL IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS BEGINNING 
EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE GFS-BASED MODEL SUGGESTS AN 
ARRIVAL 6 TO 12 HOURS LATER.  THESE HIGH SEAS WILL GRADUALLY 
REACH EASTWARD TO NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA...BUT NOT PROGRESS S OF 
ABOUT 22N.  THE DURATION OF AT LEAST 12 FOOT SEAS SHOULD LAST 
THROUGH SUNDAY.

AN EARLIER WEAK GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WIND EVENT HAS ENDED.  NO 
NEW TEHUANTEPEC WIND EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR AT LEAST A WEEK.

$$
LANDSEA