000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092105
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON APR 9 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N117W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 134W.

DISCUSSION...
WEAKENING 1020 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 21N119W WILL DISSIPATE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM 32N122W TO 19N140W. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY E... 
REACHING FROM 32N121W TO 21N131W TUE...THEN DISSIPATE W OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA WED. A BROAD LOW PRES SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP 
BETWEEN 120W AND 130W BY TUE NIGHT...ALLOWING LARGE AREA OF W TO 
NW WINDS TO PREVAIL N OF A NARROW RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 25N140W 
TO 20N110W. EXPECT TWO AREAS OF FRESH WINDS TO DEVELOP AS THIS 
SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLVES. THE FIRST WILL BE N OF THE ITCZ W OF 
125W FROM ENHANCED NE TRADES AS THE RIDGE INTENSIFIES FURTHER 
SOUTH...AND THE SECOND WILL BE N OF 25N W OF THE BROAD TROUGH AS 
A REINFORCING SURGE OF COOL AIR...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE 
TROUGH...TIGHTENS THE PRES GRADIENT N OF THE RIDGE AXIS.

HIGH PRES ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO AND A TROUGH OVER THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA IS ENHANCING NE FLOW IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO 
WHICH IS FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AS FRESH TO STRONG N 
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH TUE EVENING. 

CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL TO 8 FT S OF 10N W OF 114W WILL 
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN HEIGHT AND COVERAGE THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

$$
MUNDELL