000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090301
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON APR 9 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N110W TO 05N119W TO 01N133W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS.

DISCUSSION...
WEAKENING 1019 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 25N125W WILL CONTINUE 
BEING FORCED S BY AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 
32N129W TO 22N140W. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY E...REACHING FROM 
32N124W TO 21N138W LATER TODAY...FROM 32N120W TO 21N130W TUE... 
THEN WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE COASTS OF S CALIF AND N BAJA 
WED. A BROAD LOW PRES SURFACE TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED 
BETWEEN 120W AND 130W BY TUE NIGHT...ALLOWING LARGE AREA OF W TO 
NW WINDS TO PREVAIL N OF A NARROW RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 25N140W 
TO 20N110W. EXPECT TWO AREAS OF FRESH WINDS TO DEVELOP AS THIS 
SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLVES. THE FIRST WILL BE N OF THE ITCZ W OF 
125W FROM ENHANCED NE TRADES AS THE RIDGE INTENSIFIES FURTHER 
SOUTH...AND THE SECOND WILL BE N OF 25N W OF THE BROAD TROUGH AS 
A REINFORCING SURGE OF COOL AIR TIGHTENS THE PRES GRADIENT N OF 
THE RIDGE AXIS.

BUILDING HIGH PRES ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO AND A TROUGH IN
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL PRODUCED ENHANCED NE FLOW IN THE SW 
GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH WILL FUNNEL THROUGH CHIVELA PASS AS FRESH 
TO STRONG N WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATER THIS MORNING 
THROUGH TUE EVENING. 

CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL TO 9 FT S OF 10N W OF 105W WILL 
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN HEIGHT AND COVERAGE THROUGH MON NIGHT.

$$
MUNDELL