000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082110
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN APR 8 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 04N87W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS 
FROM 03N106W TO 04N113W TO 01N130W TO 00N135W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 128W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 04N TO 07N E OF 93W.

DISCUSSION...
WEAKENING 1022 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 25N126W WILL CONTINUE 
BEING FORCED S BY APPROACHING COLD FRONT...EXTENDING FROM 32N128W
TO 23N140W. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY E...REACHING FROM 32N125W 
TO 21N139W MON...FROM 32N121W TO 21N131W TUE...THEN WEAKEN AS IT 
APPROACHES THE COASTS OF S CALIFORNIA AND N BAJA WED. BROAD LOW 
PRES SURFACE TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BETWEEN 120W AND 130W
BY TUE NIGHT...ALLOWING LARGE AREA OF W TO NW WINDS TO PREVAIL N 
OF A NARROW RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 25N140W TO 20N110W. EXPECT TWO 
AREAS OF FRESH WINDS TO DEVELOP AS THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLVES.
THE FIRST WILL BE N OF THE ITCZ W OF 125W FROM ENHANCED NE TRADES
AS THE RIDGE INTENSIFIES FURTHER SOUTH...AND THE SECOND WILL BE N
OF 25N W OF THE BROAD TROUGH AS A REINFORCING SURGE OF COOL AIR 
TIGHTENS THE PRES GRADIENT N OF THE RIDGE AXIS.

BUILDING HIGH PRES ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO AND A TROUGH IN
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL PRODUCED ENHANCED NE FLOW IN THE SW 
GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH WILL FUNNEL THROUGH CHIVELA PASS AS FRESH 
TO STRONG N WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EARLY MON THROUGH 
TUE EVENING. 

CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL TO 9 FT S OF 08N W OF 100W WILL 
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN HEIGHT AND COVERAGE THROUGH MON NIGHT.

$$
MUNDELL