000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080959
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN APR 08 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH 06N77W TO 04N92W...THEN ITCZ TO S OF 00N128W. 
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 01N TO 06N BETWEEN 
115W AND 122W.

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK 1021 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 29N126W. THIS AREA OF 
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE PAST 24 
HOURS. MEANWHILE...A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH DEPICTED VERY WELL ON 
THE UNIVERSITY AT ALBANY DIAGNOSTIC WEB SITE HAS SLOWLY SHIFTED 
WEST OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A 
LOCALLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH HAS INCREASED NE WIND 
FLOW TO THE W OF THE TROUGH...DEPICTED WELL ON THE LATEST ASCAT 
PASS. THE INCREASE IN WINDS HELPED INCREASE SURFACE ENERGY FLUX 
FROM THE 29 CELSIUS WATER. THIS HIGHER ENERGY AIR IS CONVERGING 
INTO THE ITCZ RESULTING IN THE LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION AS 
MENTIONED IN THE SECTION ABOVE. 

THE HIGH PRES CENTER WILL SHIFT SE AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 
TO 48 HOURS. THIS WILL ENABLE A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN NW 
PORTION EXTENDING FROM 30N131W TO 25N140W TO PUSH 
EASTWARD...REACHING FROM 30N129W TO 22N140W LATE SUN 
NIGHT...THEN FROM 30N125W TO 20N135W LATE MON NIGHT. LARGE NW 
SWELL WILL BUILD TO 14 FT BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY THEN BEGIN TO 
SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10-11 FT BY MON NIGHT. 

LINGERING NW SWELL TO 8 FT PREVAILS FROM 18N TO 24N BETWEEN 115W 
AND 125W. THIS SWELL WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY LATE TONIGHT. 
CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL TO 9 FT PREVAILS S OF 08N W OF 100W. 
THIS SWELL WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AND SHRINK IN SIZE THROUGH LATE 
MON...WITH SEAS TO 8 FT COVERING THE AREA S OF 10N BETWEEN 114W 
AND 135W.

A TROUGH PREVAILS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA RESULTING IN NE 
WIND FLOW OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. THESE WINDS WILL FUNNEL 
THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE 
GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC BY LATE TONIGHT. 

$$
AL