000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080254
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN APR 8 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 10N85W TO 
04N97W THEN CONTINUES AS AN ITCZ TO 03N102W TO 04N113W TO 03N124W
TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN
85W AND 93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 112W AND 123W.

DISCUSSION...
WEAKENING 1020 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 29N127W WILL SHIFT ENE
AND WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT IN NW PORTION EXTENDING FROM 31N132W 
TO 26N140W PUSHES EASTWARD...REACHING FROM 30N130W TO 24N140W SUN
EVENING...THEN FROM 30N128W TO 20N137W MON EVENING. SW WINDS WILL
BE AROUND 20 KT N OF 25N WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT THROUGH MON
NIGHT...AND LESS THAN 20 KT W OF THE FRONT. LARGE NW SWELL WILL 
BUILD TO 14 FT BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SUN THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
TO AROUND 10-11 FT BY MON NIGHT. LARGE AREA OF NW SWELL TO 9 FT 
WILL LINGER N OF 17N W OF 115W...EXCEPT N OF 25N W OF 130W WHERE 
SEAS ARE 6-7 FT IN LIGHT WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SW SWELL TO 9 
FT ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE IS AFFECTING WATERS 
S OF 08N W OF 95W. THIS AREA WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN SIZE AND 
SEA HEIGHTS THROUGH MON. 

OSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS SHOW NO AREAS 
WITH WINDS GREATER THAN 20 KT. WEAK TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE IS 
EVIDENT ALONG THE ITCZ BOUNDARY W OF 115W WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS 
FIRING BETWEEN 112W AND 123W. AN AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
STARTING TO STRATIFY INTO CIRRUS FROM 03N-09N E OF 93W. SHOWERS 
IN THIS AREA ARE BEING ENHANCED BY THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING 
FROM 03N97W TO THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 10N85W AT THE SURFACE... 
AND DIVERGENT UPPER LEVEL WINDS ALONG 03N BETWEEN 80W AND 91W.

$$
MUNDELL