000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072125
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT APR 7 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N105W TO 02N129W TO 03N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION.

DISCUSSION...
WEAKENING 1023 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 29N128W WILL SHIFT ENE
AND WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT IN NW PORTION EXTENDING FROM 30N135W 
TO 27N140W PUSHES EASTWARD...REACHING FROM 30N130W TO 24N140W SUN
EVENING...THEN FROM 30N128W TO 20N137W MON EVENING. SW WINDS WILL
BE AROUND 20 KT N OF 25N WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT THROUGH MON
NIGHT...AND LESS THAN 20 KT W OF THE FRONT. LARGE NW SWELL WILL 
BUILD TO 14 FT BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SUN THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
TO AROUND 10-11 FT BY MON NIGHT. LARGE AREA OF NW SWELL TO 9 FT 
WILL LINGER N OF 17N W OF 114W...EXCEPT N OF 25N W OF 130W WHERE 
SEAS ARE 6-7 FT IN LIGHT WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SW SWELL TO 9 
FT ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE IS AFFECTING WATERS 
S OF 08N W OF 95W. THIS AREA WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN SIZE AND 
SEA HEIGHTS THROUGH MON. 

ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS SHOW NO AREAS 
WITH WINDS GREATER THAN 20 KT. WEAK TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE IS 
EVIDENT ALONG THE ITCZ BOUNDARY W OF 125W WITH MINIMAL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY INDICATED. AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
LOCATED BETWEEN 03N AND 08N E OF 92W. SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THIS 
AREA ARE BEING ENHANCED BY A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 03N 
97W TO THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 10N85W AND DIVERGENT UPPER LEVEL 
WINDS ALONG ALONG 03N BETWEEN 80W AND 91W.

$$
MUNDELL