000
AXPZ20 KNHC 312205
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT MAR 31 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N120W TO
05N130W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 117W-121W.

...DISCUSSION...

A HIGHLY PROGRESSIVE DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS JUST INTO THE 
DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 128W AND N OF 28N. THE ASSOCIATED COLD 
FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SW INTO THE AREA AT 
32N123W...AND CONTINUES TO 27N130W TO W OF THE AREA AT 24N140W.  
THE FRONT WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 25N AND INTO 
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY SUN. RECENTLY RECEIVED ASCAT DATA SHOWS
NW WINDS OF 20-30 KT BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALSO REVEALS COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ADVECTING SEWD INTO
THE AREA FROM WELL N OF 32N. LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS AT 10-14 SECONDS
ARE RESULTING IN SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 18 FT BEHIND THE 
FRONT. AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM EARLIER TODAY NOTED SUCH SEAS...
WITH MUCH HIGHER VALUES OF GREATER THAN 18 FT JUST N OF THE AREA
BETWEEN 131W AND 138W WHERE WINDS TO HURRICANE STRENGTH ARE 
IN THE FORECAST FOR THOSE WATERS. THIS DATA IS VERY CLOSE IN 
LINE WITH THE CONSENSUS OF GLOBAL WAVE MODEL GUIDANCES. THE LONG
PERIOD SWELL IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE S OF 32N AND MIX WITH 
LONGER PERIOD MIXED NW AND NE SWELL FURTHER SOUTH. 

HIGH PRES OF 1032 MB WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 33N149W
IS BUILDING A RIDGE EWD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MON...MAINTAINING FRESH NE TRADE WINDS FROM
06N TO 20N W OF 122W. THIS AREAS OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO 
DIMINISH ONLY SLIGHTLY INTO MON AS WEAK HIGH PRES SETTLES IN 
OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING EWD
BEHIND THE FRONT...A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WILL ALLOW FOR NW TO N WINDS OF 
20 KT TO MATERIALIZE ALONG MUCH OF THAT COAST INTO MON...AND
ALSO THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF ABOUT 29N SUN S TO 
26N BY MON AS LOW PRES OVER THE SW U.S. AND NW MEXICO INTERACTS
WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING EWD TOWARDS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA.,

MEANWHILE A RATHER  PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST W OF THE 
AREA AT 15N141W WILL WEAKEN TO A TROUGH AS IT DRIFTS EWD TO 120W 
THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS MAY AID SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM 
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER AREAS WITH DECENT 
TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE...ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL NOT 
SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

ASCAT DATA FROM TODAY DEFINED AN E-W ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH IN 
THE WIND PATTERN THAT EXTENDED FROM COSTA RICA TO 05N98W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF THIS TROUGH...ENHANCED IN PART BY UPPER DIVERGENT FLOW 
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH FROM 08N93W TO 
02N89W. WEAK CONVECTION WILL FLARE PERIODICALLY OVER THIS AREA 
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THESE FEATURES PERSIST.

$$
AGUIRRE