000
AXPZ20 KNHC 311534
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT MAR 31 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N110W TO 
07N115W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED FROM 05N 
TO 07N BETWEEN 115W AND 120W. SURFACE TROUGH NOTED FROM 06N83W 
TO 04N95W TO 05N100W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH AXIS. 

...DISCUSSION...

A HIGHLY PROGRESSIVE DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS PASSING THROUGH 135W N 
OF 25N...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN 
CALIFORNIA TO 30N129W TO 25N140W. THE FRONT WILL PUSH EASTWARD 
ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 25N AND INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY SUN. 
STRONG NW WINDS ARE NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH NW SWELL 
REACHING 10 TO 15 FT. BUOY...SHIP AND ALTIMETER DATA CONFIRM THE 
CONSENSUS OF GLOBAL WAVE MODEL INITIALIZATIONS SHOWING SEAS OF 
15 TO 20 FT 300 NM N OF THE AREA WHERE WINDS TO HURRICANE FORCE 
ARE EXPECTED. THE N SWELL GENERATED IN THIS AREA IS STARTING TO  
PROPAGATE S OF 32N...AND WILL MIX WITH LONGER PERIOD MIXED NW 
AND NE SWELL FURTHER SOUTH. 

HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 25N SUN INTO 
MON...MAINTAINING FRESH TRADE WINDS S OF 20N W OF 120W. THE 
TRADES DIMINISH TUE INTO WED AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS. NW TO N 
WINDS WILL INCREASE OFF THE N COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA STARTING 
TONIGHT AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA FOLLOWED BY THE 
HIGH PRES. 

MEANWHILE AN UPPER LOW CENTERED 15N142W WILL OPEN UP 
TO TROUGH AND WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS E TO 120W THROUGH MID WEEK. 
THIS MAY AID SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER AREAS WITH DECENT TRADE WIND 
CONVERGENCE...ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL NOT SUPPORT 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

A 0548 UTC OSCAT PASS DEFINED AN E-W ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH IN 
THE WIND PATTERN THAT EXTENDED FROM COSTA RICA TO 05N98W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF THIS TROUGH...ENHANCED IN PART BY UPPER DIVERGENT FLOW 
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH FROM 08N93W TO 
02N89W. WEAK CONVECTION WILL FLARE PERIODICALLY OVER THIS AREA 
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THESE FEATURES PERSIST.

$$
CHRISTENSEN