000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292130
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU MAR 29 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N87W TO 
06N110W TO 04N130W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 
07N BETWEEN 91W AND 96W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 98W AND 108W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 115W 
AND 123W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 
24N CONTINUING SW FROM 24N136W TO A VIGOROUS DEEP LAYERED TUTT 
LOW NEAR CENTERED NEAR 15N144W. THE NORTHERN TROUGHING WILL PUSH 
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS LEAVING MOSTLY MERIDIONAL 
FLOW ALOFT N OF 26N. SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND DEEP LAYERED 
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TUTT LOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE 
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS 
FROM 04N TO 19N W OF 126W. COLD AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO SPILL 
INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THIS DEEP LAYERED TUTT LOW HELPING TO 
INTENSIFY IT THE LAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING 
FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF FLOW INTO THIS CYCLONE BY 
EARLY SATURDAY AS IT CROSSES EAST OF 140W INTO THE DISCUSSION 
AREA. GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE WILL OCCUR OVER THE 
WEEKEND...AND BEGIN TO FINALLY LIFT E-NE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. 
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO INITIATE CONVECTION EAST OF THE 
TROUGH AXIS AS IT MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ACROSS THE LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION E OF 
THE TUTT LOW PREVAILS S OF 23N EASTWARD TO NEAR 120W...WITH 
ZONAL FLOW CONTINUING EASTWARD TO 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SW GULF OF MEXICO OVER CENTRAL 
AMERICA TO 03N85W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE FAR EASTERN 
PACIFIC. 

AT THE LOWER LEVELS...A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 
28N129W. AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF FRESH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IS 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OFF THE W COAST OF 
THE BAJA PENINSULA N OF 25N. WEST OF THIS AREA...WINDS WILL 
REMAIN LIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WITH SEAS 
RANGING FROM 8 TO 11 FT IN NW SWELL. SOUTH OF THE SURFACE 
HIGH...FRESH NE TRADEWINDS PREVAIL FROM 06N TO 20N W OF 120W AS 
SEEN IN RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA...WITH CONFUSED SEAS 8 TO 12 
FT IN A BROAD MIX OF NE...SW...AND NW SWELL. THESE TRADEWINDS 
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE THAT 
IS FUELING THE LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION E OF THE TUTT LOW...AND 
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS OTHERWISE PREVAIL E OF 110W...WITH GAP 
WIND FLOW PULSING TO NEAR 20 KT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS PATTERN IS 
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LONG PERIOD SW SWELL HAS 
MOVED INTO THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND 
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BUILDING SURF ALONG THE AREA REEFS AND 
BEACHES. POWERFUL MODERATE SIZED SURF SHOULD BE EXPECTED ALONG 
THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COASTS THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY... 
CREATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS. 

$$
HUFFMAN