000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290305
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU MAR 29 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N116W TO 
04N123W TO 07N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
A BROAD AND ENERGETIC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE 
WESTERN CONUS WITH AXIS EXTENDING OVER NEVADA AND SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA TO A BASE NEAR 30N122W. THIS TROUGHING STRETCHES AND 
EXTENDS TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TO A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF 
LOW CENTERED NEAR 16N144W. THIS CUT-OFF LOW REMAINS SLOW TO MOVE 
AND CONTINUES TO DRIFT SE DUE TO A VERY BROAD RIDGE ALOFT 
BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BEHIND THE WEST COAST TROUGH. 
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS MAXIMIZED EAST OF THE 
UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW AND ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE 
CONVERGENCE FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 
13N136W TO 07N139W CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS 
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 07N TO 18N BETWEEN 130W AND 140W. 
OTHERWISE...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE AREA S OF 23N TO 
100W. E OF 100W...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED WITH AN 
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 13N97W TO 02N90W. THIS TROUGHING IS 
PROVIDING AMPLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LIFT OF SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION FOCUSED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 09N84W TO 05N94W. 

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...AS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT SLIPS 
NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WINDS N OF 20N REMAIN BELOW 20 
KT...HOWEVER LARGE NW SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM 
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD...WITH SEAS 8 TO 13 FT 
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA. 

A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 27N128W GENERATING A SUFFICIENT 
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE W COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA. THIS IS RESULTING IN NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 KT N OF 
26N WITHIN 120 NM OF THE W COAST. EARLIER PARTIAL ASCAT 
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTED THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THESE 20 KT 
WINDS. TO THE S OF THE HIGH...FRESH NE TO E TRADEWINDS ARE SHOWN 
BY EARLIER AFTERNOON ASCAT PASSES GENERALLY FROM 05N TO 19N W OF 
115W...WHERE SEAS WERE IN THE RANGE OF 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SW 
AND NW SWELL. THESE FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY 
AND CONTINUE TO INITIATE STRONG CONVECTION W OF 130W AS THE 
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE CUT-OFF UPPER 
LEVEL LOW. NW SWELL IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH SW SWELL FROM THE 
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE THROUGH THURSDAY PRODUCING A CONFUSED SEA 
STATE.

EAST OF 110W...SURFACE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE...WITH GAP 
WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KT 
ONLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. A NEW PULSE 
OF STRONG SW SWELL WILL REACH THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COASTLINES ON 
THURSDAY TO PRODUCE MODERATE SIZED...BUT POWERFUL AND DANGEROUS 
SURF ALONG THE LOCAL REEFS AND BEACHES.

$$
HUFFMAN