000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260916
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON MAR 26 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
ITCZ AXIS FROM 7N120W TO 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG WITHIN 90 NM N OF LINE 8N114W TO 8N125W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF 20N FROM 32N120W TO 20N115W IS 
ACQUIRING A NEGATIVE TILT WHILE APPROACHING THE SW U.S. AND NW 
MEXICO. WLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS S OF 20 NM. A BAND OF HIGH 
LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED TO THE NE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH 
FROM 20N115W INTO MEXICO. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY 
AIR IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 20N W OF 115W. ELSEWHERE A 
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED FROM CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH 
MEXICO TO 10N100W. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT E AHEAD OF THE 
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH TODAY AND TUE.

ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE COLD 
FRONT FROM NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 30N115W TO 24N120W. W-NW 
WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO LESS THAN 20 KT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
HAS BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED ALLOWING FOR RIDGING TO BUILD TO 
ITS SOUTH...AND THUS BREAKING UP THE DEEP LAYER TROUGHING. THE 
FRONT WILL WEAKEN SHARPLY BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON. 
LARGE NW SWELL UP TO 17 FT CURRENTLY W OF THE FRONT. THE LARGE 
NW SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECAY TO 8-12 FT BY THIS EVENING AND 
THEN TO 8-11 FT BY TUE EVENING AS IT CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE TO 
THE SE.

NE TRADE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20 KT FROM 9N-15N W OF 120W AS 
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N IS BUILDING W OF THE WEAKENING 
COLD FRONT. THE WEAK HIGH WILL LIE OVER THE NE WATERS BY TUE 
MORNING AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA. THIS FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 30N133W TO 26N140W 
TUE NIGHT.

A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH FROM 9N87W TO 02N95W. ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE TROUGH.

$$
DGS