000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260244 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON MAR 26 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06.5N120W TO 05N130W TO 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. ...DISCUSSION... AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF 20N FROM 32N120W TO 20N115W IS ACQUIRING A NEGATIVE TILT WHILE APPROACHING THE SW U.S. AND NW MEXICO. A 70-90 KT NORTHERN STREAM UPPER JET ROUNDS THE TROUGH NEAR 30N WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET EXTENDS ZONALLY BETWEEN 06N AND 20N TO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NEAR 115W. A BAND OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED TO THE NE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FROM 20N118W TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A SECOND BAND OF MOISTURE LIES FROM 10N-20N W OF 110W ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 20N W OF 118W. ELSEWHERE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED FROM CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH MEXICO TO 10N100W. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT E AHEAD OF THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MON THROUGH TUE. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE N WATERS FROM 30N118W TO 27N119W THEN DISSIPATING TO 23N123W TO 21N130W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST TO THE W OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N119W TO 26N127W. W-NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE N OF 27N W OF THE TROUGH TO 128W. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MON AS THE SUPPORTING TROUGHING ALOFT CONTINUES TO ACQUIRE ITS NEGATIVE TILT ALLOWING FOR RIDGING TO BUILD TO ITS SOUTH...AND THUS BREAKING UP THE DEEP LAYER TROUGHING. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN SHARPLY BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE FORECAST WATERS BY MON AFTERNOON. LARGE NW SWELL UP TO 19 FT CURRENTLY LIES W OF THE FRONT. THE LARGE NW SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECAY TO 8-12 FT BY MON EVENING AND THEN TO 8-11 FT BY TUE EVENING AS IT CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE TO THE SE. FRESH TRADE WINDS...WHICH HAVE TAKEN A HIATUS DUE TO THE FRONT BREAKING UP THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N...WILL RETURN BY MON AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS E BEHIND THE FRONT. THE TRADES WILL COVER THE AREA FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 115W AND 135W BY MON EVENING WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH TUE EVENING. THE WEAK HIGH WILL LIE OVER THE NE WATERS BY TUE MORNING...FORCED EASTWARD BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW WATERS. THIS NEW FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 30N134W TO 27N140W BY TUE EVENING WITH FRESH SW WINDS AHEAD OF IT...AND A NEW SET OF NW SWELL UP TO 13 FT BEHIND IT. FARTHER S...A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH LIES FROM 08N87W TO 03N93W TO 02N102W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 02N TO 04N BETWEEN 86W AND 89W... AND ALSO WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 92W AND 95W. MOSITURE POOLED SOUTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IS BEING LIFTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET OVER THE CARIBBEAN. GAP WINDS... GULF OF CALIFORNIA...FRESH TO STRONG S-SW WINDS LIE IN THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 30N AS CONFIRMED BY AN AFTERNOON ASCAT PASS. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. $$ LEWITSKY