000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250235
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN MAR 25 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N126W TO 
04N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LAYERED MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF THE AREA W OF CAPE 
MENDOCINO NEAR 40N128W EXTENDS A PAIR OF TROUGHS INTO OUR AREA. 
THE PRIMARY/EASTERN TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 32N118W TO 
20N140W WITH THE SECONDARY/WESTERN TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW 
TO 32N122W TO 23N135W. AN AREA OF MOISTURE IS PRESENT WITHIN 300 
NM AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY TROUGH AND WITHIN 60-90 NM AHEAD OF THE 
SECONDARY TROUGH...WITH MAINLY DRY AIR NOTED ELSEWHERE W OF THE 
PRIMARY TROUGH. ELSEWHERE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...GENERALLY 
ZONAL FLOW EXISTS WITH SCATTERED PACKETS OF MOISTURE BEING 
ADVECTED FROM THE SW-W TO THE E ACROSS THE TROPICS.

THE TROUGHS MENTIONED ABOVE ARE SUPPORTING A DECAYING SURFACE 
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FROM 30N124W TO 27N126W TO 24N132W. 
NW-N 20-25 KT WINDS ARE N OF 27N W OF THE FRONT WITH SW 20 KT 
WINDS N OF 28N WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT. LARGE NW SWELL TO 
19 FT EXISTS W OF THE FRONT WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS NEAR 30N133W. 
THIS FRONT WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A 
REINFORCING COLD FRONT REACHING FROM 30N121W TO 27N123W TO 
25N127W BY SUN EVENING. ALSO...A SECONDARY SET OF NW SWELL WILL 
MAINTAIN SEAS TO 19 FT NEAR 30N124W THROUGH 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL 
LIKELY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 30 KT ALONG 30N BY SUN MORNING AS A 
SURFACE LOW SKIRTS BY JUST N OF THE AREA. ASSOCIATED GALE FORCE 
WINDS WITH THIS LOW ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF 30N. THE NEW 
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY 48 HOURS WITH THE LARGE NW SWELL 
GRADUALLY DECAYING TO 8-13 FT BY MON EVENING.

SOUTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE FAR NORTHERN GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA N OF 30N LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING AHEAD OF 
THE COLD FRONTS MENTIONED ABOVE.

SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL TO 8 FT WITH PEAK WAVE PERIODS OF 13-15 
SECONDS EXISTS S OF 11N BETWEEN 102W AND 118W. THIS SWELL IS 
FORECAST TO DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A RATHER PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH IS OBSERVED FROM 07N86W TO 
02N92W TO 01N103W...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION PRESENT FROM 04N TO 06.5N BETWEEN 82W AND 89W. EXPECT 
THE TROUGH TO LINGER ACROSS THE SAME GENERAL AREA THROUGH THE 
NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

$$
LEWITSKY