000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232158
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI MAR 23 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 9N110W TO 91N120W TO 6N131W TO 4N140W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 
112W-127W.

...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH N OF 24N W OF 120W IS SUPPORTING A COLD 
FRONT JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL 
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES E TOWARDS THE U.S THROUGH THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA 
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AN EXTENSIVE FIELD COLD AIR 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS RAPIDLY MOVING SEWD TO THE N PERIPHERY OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA AS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. NW WINDS OF 20 
KT WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 
20-25 KT BY EARLY SAT MORNING AS THE FRONT REACHES 32N125W ALONG 
28N130W TO 26N140W BY SAT AFTERNOON THEN W TO NW AT 25-30 KT 
WITH POSSIBLE HIGHER GUSTS N OF 29N AND WINDS TO GALE FORCE JUST 
N OF 32N BY EARLY SUN. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN SUN EXTENDING 
THROUGH 32N122W TO 25N130W WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE TO 24N140W. 
IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...WAVEWATCH 
MODEL GUIDANCE ARE CONSISTENTLY SUGGESTING THAT LONG PERIOD NW 
SWELLS SPREADING INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA BEHIND THE 
FRONT WILL LEAD TO VERY LARGE SEA HEIGHTS...POSSIBLY IN THE 
RANGE OF 13-18 FT IN 24 HRS AND BUILDING FURTHER TO 16-24 FT BY 
48 HRS.

A RATHER PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH E OF 110W REMAINS FROM 08N81W 
TO 05N85W TO 05N91W TO 07N97W. WEAKER CONVERGENCE IS OCCURRING 
SE OF THIS TROUGH WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 
NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH BETWEEN 82W AND 87W. 

THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 
28N140W TO THE S TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL WEAKEN WITH THE 
APPROACH OF THE UPCOMING COLD FRONT. A WEAK PRES GRADIENT 
PREVAILS TO THE S OF THE RIDGE ALLOWING FOR A VERY SMALL AREA OF 
NE 20 KT WINDS FROM 15N TO 23N W OF 132W WITH SEAS OF 8 FT. 
THESE TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY SAT EVENING.

TRADE WINDS HAVE WEAKENED ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND ARE 
SOMEWHAT DIFFLUENT APPROACHING THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COASTS. GAP 
WINDS SPILLING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE EASTERN 
PACIFIC REMAIN RATHER LIGHT. NE TO E WINDS 20 KT WINDS THROUGH 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE FORECAST TO DROP BELOW 20 KT SAT NIGHT.

N WINDS OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO SPILL THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PANAMA FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA BEGINNING EARLY TONIGHT...
BUT WILL VERY SHORT-LIVED AS ONLY EXPECTED TO LAST INTO EARLY
SAT MORNING BEFORE LESSENING TO LESS THAN 20 KT.

$$
PAW