000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231604
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI MAR 23 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N117W TO 06N123W TO 06N128W TO 03N140W. 
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. 

...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA EXTENDS
FROM NEAR 32N133W TO 23N140W. IT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
...WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM NW OF THE AREA AR 12 UTC...THAT IS 
QUICKLY ADVANCING SEWD. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN 
AS IT PRESS EWD TOWARDS THE U.S THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
MEANWHILE...THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE AREA EARLY 
THIS EVENING FROM NEAR 32N130W TO 28N140W. AN EXTENSIVE FIELD 
COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS RAPIDLY MOVING SEWD NW OF THE AREA 
AS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IS INDICATIVE OF THE COLD AIR MASS 
BEHIND THE FRONT. RESULTANT NW WINDS OF 20 KT WILL FOLLOW IN 
BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINNING THIS EVENING...AND GRADUALLY INCREASE 
TO 20-25 KT BY EARLY SAT MORNING AS THE FRONT REACHES FROM 
32N126W TO 27N140W AND TO W TO NW AT 25-30 KT WITH POSSIBLE 
HIGHER GUSTS N OF 29N AND WINDS TO GALE FORCE JUST N OF 32N BY 
EARLY SUN WHEN THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM 32121W TO 
24N130W AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE THROUGH 23N140W. IN ADDITION TO 
THE INCREASING WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...WAVEWATCH MODEL 
GUIDANCES ARE CONSISTENTLY SUGGESTING THAT LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS 
SPREADING INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL 
LEAD TO VERY LARGE SEA HEIGHTS...POSSIBLY IN THE RANGE OF 13-18 
FT IN 24 HRS AND BUILDING FURTHER TO 14-21 FT BY 48 HRS.

A RATHER PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH E OF 110W REMAINS ROUGHLY
ALONG A PSN FROM NEAR 07N85W SW TO 04N92W AND TO 01N100W. WEAKER
CONVERGENCE IS OCCURRING SE OF THIS TROUGH. ONLY ISOLATED WEAK
SHOWERS ARE NOTED WITHIN 180 NM SE OF THE TROUGH.

THE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 30N140W
TO NEAR SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL RESPOND TO THE APPROACH OF
THE UPCOMING COLD FRONT BY WEAKENING. A RATHER MEAGER 
PRES GRADIENT PREVAILS TO THE S OF THE RIDGE IS ALLOWING FOR
A SMALL AREA OF NE 20 KT WINDS FROM 13N TO 23N W OF 132W WITH
SEAS OF 8 FT. THESE TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY 
SAT EVENING.

TRADE WINDS HAVE WEAKENED ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND ARE 
SOMEWHAT DIFFLUENT APPROACHING THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COASTS. GAP 
WINDS SPILLING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE EASTERN 
PACIFIC REMAIN RATHER LIGHT. NE TO E WINDS 20 KT WINDS THROUGH 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE FORECAST TO DROP BELOW 20 KT EARLY 
TONIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN SAT MORNING AND DIMINISH SAT 
NIGHT.

N WINDS OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO SPILL THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PANAMA FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA BEGINNING EARLY TONIGHT...
BUT WILL VERY SHORT-LIVED AS ONLY EXPECTED TO LAST INTO EARLY
SAT MORNING BEFORE LESSENING TO LESS THAN 20 KT.

$$
AGUIRRE