000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230253
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI MAR 23 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0215 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N117W TO 06N123W TO 06N128W TO 03N140W. 
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. 

...DISCUSSION...

DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE NW PORTION SUPPORTING A COLD 
FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N124W 28N132W DISSIPATING TO 
25N140W. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG S AND THE FRONT 
WILL MOVE SE AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NEXT 12 TO 24 
HOURS WITH A SECOND STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW 
CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BY FRI AFTERNOON. VERY LARGE SEAS 
OF POSSIBLE RANGES IN THE 12-18 FT IN NW SWELLS ARE FORECAST BY 
WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE IN WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH SAT. 
ALSO...POSSIBLE GALE FORCE WINDS IN VERY STRONG NW COLD AIR FLOW 
MAY SKIRT THE FAR N/CENTRAL WATERS ON SAT IN THE WAKE OF THE 
FRONT.

A RATHER PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF 110W EXTENDING FROM 
NEAR 7N91W TO NEAR 2N98W. CONVERGENCE IS OCCURRING TO THE SE OF 
THIS TROUGH AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE PULSES OF SHOWERS WHICH 
CONTINUE TO WEAKENED. 

WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS S AND SE OF THE FRONT. AS THE SECOND 
COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS...THE RIDGE WILL RESPOND BY WEAKENING FURTHER. 
HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT PREVAILS TO THE S OF THE 
RIDGE TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF FRESH NELY TRADE WINDS FROM 4N TO 
13N W OF 136W WHERE SEAS ARE TO 8 FT. THE FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL 
GRADUALLY SHRINK AND SHIFT W OF THE AREA ON FRI.  

TRADE WINDS HAVE WEAKENED ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND ARE 
SOMEWHAT DIFFLUENT APPROACHING THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COASTS. GAP 
WINDS SPILLING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE EASTERN 
PACIFIC REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT AND BELOW 20 KT. TYPICAL NE-E WINDS 
OF AROUND 20 KT ARE EXPECTED FUNNEL OUT THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE THEN 
WEAKENING ON SAT EVENING.

N WINDS OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO SPILL THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PANAMA FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA BEGINNING TONIGHT WITH LITTLE 
CHANGE THROUGH FRI...THEN DROPPING TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY SAT AS 
THE CARIBBEAN TRADES SLACKEN.

$$
PAW