000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220333
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU MAR 22 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0215 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
ITCZ AXIS IS FROM 10N104W TO 06N115W TO 04N130W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 112W AND 120W. 


...DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR 28N122W IS WEDGED BETWEEN A 
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
AND A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE 
CENTRAL PLAIN STATES AND MEXICO INTO THE W GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER 
LEVEL WESTERLIES PREVAIL TO THE S OF THESE FEATURES... MAINLY S 
OF 13N E TO ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA.   

THE COLD FRONT SUPPORTED BY THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS 
FROM 32N133W TO 28N140W AND IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE ALONG 
32N127W TO 26N133W TO 24N140W BY THU NIGHT. A RE-ENFORCING COLD 
FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW PORTION FRI AFTERNOON BRINGING 20-25 KT 
WINDS TO THE AREA W OF THE NEW FRONT. 

WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COVERS THE AREA 
N OF 20N W OF 120W. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES COUPLED 
WITH THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES 
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA AND ARE CONFINED TO MAINLY FROM 24N TO 30N. THESE 
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY EARLY THU.

S OF THE SURFACE RIDGE IS AN ELONGATED ZONE OF FRESH NELY 
TRADEWINDS FROM 06N TO 16N W OF 122W. NE WIND WAVES ARE 
COMBINING WITH MODERATE TO LARGE NW SWELL ACROSS THE REGION TO 
PRODUCE SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT OVER A MUCH LARGER AREA. 

E OF 100W IS A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE 
COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR 10N85W TO 5N90W TO 2N98W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM SE OF THE TROUGH E OF 90W. 

ALSO WITH REGARDS TO MARINE ISSUES...VERY LONG PERIOD SRN 
HEMISPHERIC SWELLS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THIS AREA THU 
AFTERNOON AND ACT TO ELEVATE SEA HEIGHTS TO POSSIBLY AROUND 8 FT 
ALONG THE EQUATOR...WITH SOME POTENTIAL THAT THE ASSOCIATED WAVE 
ENERGY MAY LEAD TO HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS AFFECTING THE 
CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI. 

$$
PAW