000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192126
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON MAR 19 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1945 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N127W TO 04N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

THE IMPACTS OF A STRONG COLD FRONT OVER N CENTRAL MEXICO 
CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER NW MEXICO AND THE PACIFIC WATERS 
OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. FRESH TO STRONG W TO NW WINDS CAN 
BE FOUND W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA TO 125W N OF 28N ACCORDING TO 
THE 1820 UTC ASCAT PASS. THERE HAVE BEEN NO OBSERVATIONS IN THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA SINCE THE 0738 UTC OSCAT PASS WHICH REPORTED 
STRONG WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF WITH LOCALLY STRONGER 
MEASUREMENTS WHERE WINDS HAD FUNNELED THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN 
PASSES IN BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. THESE WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS 
OF DIMINISHING AND SHOULD BE BELOW 20 KT BY EVENING. AN AREA OF 
FRESH N TO NW WINDS LIES NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS WHERE THE SW EDGE 
OF THE COLD FRONT BUTTS UP AGAINST THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THESE 
WINDS SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD TO OFF THE COAST OF MAINLAND 
MEXICO NEAR CABO CORRIENTES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE WINDS 
WILL DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WED AFTERNOON WHEN THE 
FRONT PULLS WELL E OF THE AREA. NORTHWEST SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH 
THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO GENERATE SEAS AS HIGH AS 13 FEET OFF THE 
W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 
9 FEET OR LESS AS THEY TRAVEL WELL SOUTH OF 15N AND WELL 
OFFSHORE OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA BY WED EVENING.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STEMS FROM 1028 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 31N146W 
AND EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD TO 12N110W. THIS RIDGE CONTINUES TO 
SUPPORT A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TRADE WINDS TO ITS SOUTH FROM 05N 
TO 23N W OF 130W AND FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 117W AND 130W 
ACCORDING TO THE 1642 UTC AND 1822 ASCAT PASSES. THE SUBTROPICAL 
HIGH WILL BE WEAKENED AND PUSHED EASTWARD BY AN ENCROACHING COLD 
FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE AREA OF FRESH TRADES WILL THIN 
OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH CONSIDERABLY AND SHRINK WESTWARD THROUGH 
WED EVENING IN RESPONSE TO CHANGES IN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH.

A SURFACE TROUGH LIES FROM 09N84W TO 06N87W TO 03N94W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION LIES BETWEEN 210 NM TO 390 NM EAST OF THIS 
TROUGH FROM 05N TO 07N AS WELL AS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA FROM 02N TO 06N. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING SHEARED BY 
40-60 KT OF WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN 
STREAM UPPER JET. 

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN AND AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH FROM 09N84W TO 06N87W TO 
03N94W HAS RELAXED ENOUGH FOR WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO  
DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT. WINDS MAY PULSE TO 20 KT IN THE EARLY 
MORNING HOURS WHEN DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE LAND IS AT A MAXIMUM. 

$$
SCHAUER