000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181533
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN MAR 18 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
THE ITCZ IS S OF THE EQUATOR. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO THE 
CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA TO 21N112W. A 110-140 KT JETSTREAM ON THE 
W SIDE OF THE TROUGH FROM 32N124W TO CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA 
WHERE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW AT 105-120 KT NE TO THE SE 
ARIZONA/MEXICO BORDER. A 75-100 KT SUBTROPICAL JET SE OF THE 
TROUGH IS ADVECTING ABUNDANT MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL TROPICAL 
MOISTURE INTO MEXICO. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND 
STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS ACROSS THE 
DISCUSSION AREA W OF 125W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF THE 
TROUGH.

COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 24N117W. 
STRONG NW WINDS WITH SWELLS UP TO 20 FT ARE W OF THE FRONT TO 
125W. SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE W OF THE FRONT WITH NE TRADE AT 20 
KT WITH SEAS UP TO 11 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SELL ARE ALONG THE 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM 5N-20N W OF 130W. OTHERWISE 
LARGE NW SWELLS ARE W OF 115W.

ELY WINDS TO 20 KT CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
AND ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 KT MON.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM COSTA RICA TO 5N94W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 
83W-93W.
 
$$
DGS