000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171531
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT MAR 17 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE ITCZ AXIS 01N112W TO 03N123W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N120W 25N120W TO 10N136W. A 
100-125 KT NW JETSTREAM IS ALONG 32N128W TO 28N121W. MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS 
IS FROM 15N-25N W OF 125W. SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM IS SE OF THE 
TOUGH AXIS AND IS ADVECTING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE 
ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE 
BIG BEND OF TEXAS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE 
DISCUSSION AREA E OF THE TROUGH.

STRONG COLD EXTENDS FROM 32N122W TO 27N140W. STRONG NLY WINDS 
ARE W OF THE FRONT WITH NW SWELLS TO 12 FT. THE FRONT WILL 
CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE E AND SWELLS WILL BUILDS TO 10-18 FT W 
OF THE FRONT ON SUN. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SPREAD 
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON SUN. OTHERWISE STRONG 
RIDGE W OF THE FRONT WITH TRADES TO 20 KT FROM 5N-20N W OF 130W. 
OTHERWISE MIXED SWELL IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE ARE S OF 20N W OF 
115W.

SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA TO 3N100W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N TO 83W-89W, 

ELY WINDS TO 20 KT CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MON.

$$
DGS