000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151534
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU MAR 15 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N90W TO 
02N104W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 06N 
BETWEEN 90W AND 101W.

...DISCUSSION...

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES NE TO SW ACROSS THE WATERS 
N OF 14N AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY UNTIL EARLY 
SATURDAY WHEN VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD 
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA REGION TO THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND 
NORTHERN BAJA COASTAL REGION. UNTIL THIS OCCURS...A 1023 MB HIGH 
CENTERED NEAR 29N123W WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A BENIGN WIND 
FIELD WITH DECAYING SWELL AND SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS 
MAXIMIZING AROUND 10 FT N OF 24N BETWEEN 118W AND 135W. THE HIGH 
WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND MERGE WITH A STRONGER SURFACE RIDGE 
ANCHORED NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY. AS A RESULT 
OF THE DOMINATING RIDGE AXIS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY...NE TRADES ARE 
EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE AREA GENERALLY FROM 05N TO 19N W OF 
125W THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SEAS REMAINING IN THE 9 TO 10 FT 
RANGE OVER THIS AREA. THEN BY EARLY SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH ARRIVES OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CALIFORNIA...IT WILL 
DRIVE THE NEXT COLD FRONT INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA 
PROVIDING FOR N TO NW WINDS OF 20 KT AND SEAS TO 10 FT ALONG 
WITH A NEW BATCH OF NW SWELL IN THE 13 TO 15 SECOND PERIOD 
RANGE.

ELSEWHERE OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 110W...A MIDDLE TO UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO CENTERED NEAR 
17N96W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DRY AIR AND OVERALL 
SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANIES THE AIRMASS...HOWEVER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE 
CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS IS GENERATING AN 
AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 90W 
AND 101W.

GAP WINDS... 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS IN THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRI 
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 20 KT BY EARLY SATURDAY. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE 
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO UNTIL LATE FRIDAY WHEN SURFACE RIDGING 
AND THE ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX OVER 
SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUE TO FUNNEL NORTHEASTERLY GAP WINDS THROUGH 
CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO EXTENDING WESTWARD TO 
95W. EARLIER MORNING SCATTEROMETER PASSES CAPTURED A 120 NM WIDE 
SWATH OF NE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT EXTENDING FROM THE 
GULF TO NEAR 07N94W.

THE GULF OF PANAMA...TRADES IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA WILL 
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PULSES OF FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE 
ISTHMUS OF PANAMA INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO 
REMAIN LESS THAN 8 FT WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 
48 HOURS.

$$
HUFFMAN