000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142122
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED MAR 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2000 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N81W TO 
00N111W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM N OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 81W AND 87W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHED NE TO SW ACROSS WATERS N 
OF 20N IS BEING RELOADED WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WHICH IS 
SLOWING THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE BROAD TROUGH. A SURFACE 
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BROAD TROUGH ALOFT CURRENTLY LIES 
OVER NW WATERS FROM 30N131W THROUGH 26N136W TO 25N140W AND A 
1023 MB HIGH LIES TO ITS E NEAR 30N121W OFF THE COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA NORTE. THE WEAKENED SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER N WATERS 
IS SUPPORTING A SKINNY SWATH OF FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM 10N TO 
14N W OF 120W. AS THE HIGH OFF THE BAJA BUILDS AND SHIFTS W THU 
INTO FRI...LOOK FOR TRADES TO EXPAND LATITUDINALLY. THE PRES 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THAT HIGH AND TROUGHING OVER NW MEXICO WILL 
ALLOW FRESH NW WINDS TO SET UP ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THAT WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD ALONG 
THE PENINSULA THU. ON FRI...THE TIGHTEST PRES GRADIENT WILL 
SHIFT NORTHWARD AND FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL BE LIMITED TO N 
OF 28N BY AFTERNOON. 

THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER JET ALONG 10N W OF 130W SPLITS AS IT 
MOVES EASTWARD...WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH CONTINUING ALONG 10N 
AND THE NORTHERN BRANCH DIRECTED INTO NW MEXICO...TRACKING ONTO 
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BROAD TROUGH. THE 
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET IS TRANSPORTING TROPICAL MOISTURE IN 
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA INTO THE 
RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE RADAR AT GUASAVE DOES NOT SHOW ANY SHOWER 
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BAND OF CLOUDS. 

GAP WINDS... 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS IN THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FRI AFTERNOON. WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT 
CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN GULF 
OF MEXICO...EARLY MORNING DRAINAGE FLOW TO 30 KT IS EXPECTED THE 
NEXT FEW MORNINGS AS SEEN BY SHIP DGAF WHICH REPORTED WINDS JUST 
BELOW GALE FORCE NEAR 14N96W AT 1200 UTC. 

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUE TO FUNNEL NORTHEASTERLY GAP WINDS THROUGH 
CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO EXTENDING WESTWARD TO 
97W. THE 1506 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS BOTH 
IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF PAPAGAYO AND FARTHER SW NEAR 
09N90W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRES 
OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND THE ITCZ TO THE S IS FORCING THE 
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS FARTHER W OF PAPAGAYO THAN USUAL.

THE GULF OF PANAMA...TRADES IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA WILL 
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PULSES OF FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE 
ISTHMUS OF PANAMA INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO 
REMAIN LESS THAN 8 FT WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 
48 HOURS.

$$
SCHAUER