000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141532
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED MAR 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N91W TO 
02N103W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 96W AND 103W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA FROM 
32N124W TO 22N140W. THIS TROUGH WILL BE RELOADED WITH NORTHERN 
STREAM ENERGY WHICH WILL SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE BROAD 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. A SURFACE TROUGH 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED 
FROM 32N134W TO 26N140W WITH A 1020 MB HIGH TO THE EAST CENTERED 
NEAR 30N121W. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER 
THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE TO ITS EAST BUILDS 
WESTWARD AND MERGES WITH A STRONGER HIGH NW OF THE REGION BY 
EARLY FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND 
TROUGHING OVER NW MEXICO WILL ALLOW FRESH NW WINDS TO SET UP 
ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BY LATE THIS EVENING AND 
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THE WEAKENED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE 
OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS IS SUPPORTING A SMALL AREA OF FRESH 
TRADE WINDS W OF 133W. AS THE HIGH BUILDS AND SHIFTS WESTWARD 
INTO THURSDAY...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR TRADES TO EXPAND IN AREAL 
COVERAGE FROM 05N TO 16N W OF 126W BY FRIDAY PER ADEQUATE 
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS...ECMWF...AND UKMET GLOBAL MODELS.

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 96W AND 103W. THE 14/0410 UTC ASCAT PASS 
AND 14/0638 OSCAT PASS SHOWS AN AREA OF BROAD LOW LEVEL 
CONVERGENCE NEAR THIS CONVECTION THAT ALSO COINCIDES WITH THE 
LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL JET THAT 
LIES ALONG 10N W OF 100W.

GAP WINDS... 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS THROUGH 
THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION ARE 
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD 
FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC 
PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...EARLY 
MORNING DRAINAGE FLOW TO 30 KT IS EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA 
CONTINUE TO FUEL NE 20 TO 25 KT GAP WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA 
THEN THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO EXTENDING WESTWARD TO 100W 
ACCORDING TO OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER PASSES FROM ASCAT AND 
OSCAT. SEAS OVER THE AREA FROM FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN THE 
IMMEDIATE PAPAGAYO REGION AND 110W REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 8 TO 9 
FT. 

THE GULF OF PANAMA...TRADES IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA WILL 
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PULSES OF FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE 
ISTHMUS OF PANAMA INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO 
REMAIN LESS THAN 8 FT WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 
48 HOURS.

$$
HUFFMAN