000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140343
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED MAR 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS REMAINS ANALYZED S OF
THE EQUATOR.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA FROM 
32N120W TO 20N140W. THIS TROUGH WILL BE RELOADED WITH NORTHERN 
STREAM ENERGY WHICH WILL SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE BROAD 
UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN WATERS. A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BROAD TROUGH CURRENTLY LIES OVER NW WATERS 
FROM 32N131W TO 27N140W AND A 1019 MB HIGH LIES TO ITS E NEAR 
31N121W OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. THIS FRONT WILL 
GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE HIGH PRES TO ITS 
EAST BUILDS. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND TROUGHING 
OVER NW MEXICO WILL ALLOW FRESH NW WINDS TO SET UP ALONG THE W 
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO 
THU EVENING. THE WEAKENED SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER N WATERS IS 
SUPPORTING A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TRADE WINDS NEAR 10N W OF 134W. 
TRADES WILL STRETCH EASTWARD ALONG 10N WED AS THE FRONT WEAKENS 
AND THE RIDGING TO THE NORTH BROADENS. AS THE HIGH OFF THE BAJA 
BUILDS AND SHIFTS W THU...LOOK FOR TRADES TO EXPAND 
LATITUDINALLY.

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 60 NM S OF LINE FROM 
06N87W TO 02N102W. THE 1810 UTC OSCAT PASS SHOWS AN AREA OF 
BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THIS CONVECTION. THIS AREA 
COINCIDES WITH THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM 
UPPER JET THAN LIES ALONG 10N W OF 105W. CONVECTION SHOULD 
DIMINISH HERE AS THE JET WEAKENS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

GAP WINDS... 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS THROUGH 
THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION ARE 
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THU 
EVENING. WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN 
IS EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...EARLY MORNING 
DRAINAGE FLOW TO 30 KT IS EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA 
CONTINUE TO FUEL NE 20-25 KT GAP WINDS THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA 
INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO EXTENDING WESTWARD TO 96W ACCORDING TO 
THE 1810 UTC OSCAT PASS. AN AREA OF FRESH NE TO E WINDS LIES 
FURTHER DOWNSTREAM OF PAPAGAYO WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT IS 
STRONGEST BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRES TO THE N OF THE
NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE ITCZ SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR. 

THE GULF OF PANAMA...TRADES IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA WILL 
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PULSES OF FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE 
ISTHMUS OF PANAMA INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO 
REMAIN LESS THAN 8 FT WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 
48 HOURS.

$$
SCHAUER