000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132129
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE MAR 13 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2015 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS REMAINS ANALYZED SOUTH 
OF THE EQUATOR.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA FROM 
32N122W TO 22N140W. THIS TROUGH WILL BE RELOADED WITH NORTHERN 
STREAM ENERGY WHICH WILL SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE BROAD 
UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN WATERS. A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BROAD TROUGH CURRENTLY LIES OVER NW WATERS 
FROM 32N133W TO 28N140W AND A 1020 MB HIGH LIES TO ITS E NEAR 
30N120W. THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS 
AS THE HIGH PRES TO ITS EAST BUILDS. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THIS HIGH AND TROUGHING OVER NW MEXICO WILL ALLOW FRESH NW WINDS 
TO SET UP ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT WED 
NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO THU. THE WEAKENED SUBTROPICAL RIDGING 
OVER N WATERS IS SUPPORTING A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TRADE WINDS W 
OF 125W. AS THE HIGH BUILDS AND SHIFTS W LATE WED INTO 
THU...LOOK FOR TRADES TO EXPAND LATITUDINALLY. 

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
LINE FROM 05N87W TO 02N102W. THE 1528 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN 
AREA OF BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THIS CONVECTION. THIS 
AREA COINCIDES WITH THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE SOUTHERN 
STREAM UPPER JET THAN LIES ALONG 10N W OF 105W. CONVECTION 
SHOULD DIMINISH HERE AS THE JET WEAKENS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

GAP WINDS... 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS THROUGH 
THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION ARE 
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THU 
AFTERNOON. WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN 
IS EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...EARLY MORNING 
DRAINAGE FLOW TO 30 KT IS EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS. 

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA 
CONTINUE TO FUEL NE 20-25 KT GAP WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA 
THEN THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO EXTENDING WESTWARD TO 94W 
ACCORDING TO THE 1528 UTC ASCAT PASS. AN AREA OF FRESH NE TO E 
WINDS LIES FURTHER DOWNSTREAM OF PAPAGAYO WHERE THE PRES 
GRADIENT IS STRONGEST BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRES TO 
THE N OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND THE ITCZ SOUTH OF THE 
EQUATOR. 

THE GULF OF PANAMA...TRADES IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA WILL 
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PULSES OF FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE 
ISTHMUS OF PANAMA INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO 
REMAIN LESS THAN 8 FT WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 
48 HOURS.

$$
SCHAUER