000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131524
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE MAR 13 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS REMAINS ANALYZED SOUTH 
OF THE EQUATOR.

...DISCUSSION...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST WATERS WITH AN AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM 32N125W TO 24N140W. OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS...A 
PAIR OF REMNANT COLD FRONTS CONTINUED TO DISSIPATE AND NOW 
ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS INTRODUCED A NEW COLD 
FRONT INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE REGION FROM 32N134W TO 27N140W. 
NW SWELL AND SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS TO 10 FT ARE EXPECTED N OF 
25N W OF 123W AND WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY GRADUALLY ONLY TO BE 
REPLACED BY ANOTHER BATCH OF NW SWELL WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE 
HEIGHTS TO 11 FT WITH THE NEW FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN 
WATERS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SOUTH OF THIS TROUGHING... 
PRIMARILY WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS KEEPING CONDITIONS AT THE 
SURFACE RATHER BENIGN. GIVEN THAT SURFACE TROUGHING SKIRTS TO 
THE NORTH OF 23N AS MENTIONED ABOVE...E-NE TRADES REMAIN IN THE 
RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH ONLY A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF NE 20 
KT WINDS FROM 06N TO 16N W OF 124W. EARLY MORNING SCATTEROMETER 
DATA INDICATES THIS AREA OF TRADES AND THE LIGHTER ANTICYCLONIC 
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 29N122W.

OTHERWISE W OF 110W A DOME OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS 
CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF 12N96W AND ACCORDING TO WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY IS ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE. THIS IS 
RESULTING IN AN OVERALL LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP SUSTAINED 
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK 
TROUGH AXIS DOES HOWEVER EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA 
TO 03N80W AND PROVIDES MID-LEVEL LIFT AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE 
TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 45 NM OF 
THE SW COLOMBIA AND NW ECUADOR COASTS.

GAP WINDS... 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AS NE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE SW 
GULF OF MEXICO REGION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...N TO NE WINDS 
THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION 
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30 KT THROUGH 
EARLY FRIDAY. WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC 
PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...EARLY 
MORNING DRAINAGE FLOW TO 30 KT IS EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW 
MORNINGS. 

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA 
CONTINUE TO FUEL NE 20-25 KT GAP WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA 
THEN THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO EXTENDING WESTWARD TO 92W. 
SEAS TO 9 FT ARE DOWNSTREAM OF THE FLOW WITH THE MAXIMUM AREA OF 
SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF 08N95W.

THE GULF OF PANAMA...TRADES IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA WILL 
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PULSES OF FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE 
ISTHMUS OF PANAMA INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO 
REMAIN LESS THAN 8 FT WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 
48 HOURS.

$$
HUFFMAN