000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130357
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE MAR 13 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH IS NOT PRESENT ACROSS E PACIFIC. ITCZ AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM 03N88W TO 01N100W TO 00N110W AND CONTINUES S OF THE 
EQUATOR. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. 

...DISCUSSION...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS PRESENT OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE 
AREA N OF 20N W OF 119W. A JETSTREAM BRANCH WITH MAXIMUM WINDS
70-90 KT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ENTERING THE AREA THROUGH
17N140W...AND CONTINUING NEWD TO 23N126W TO 26N120W AND TO 
ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO WELL INLAND NRN MEXICO AND
THE S CENTRAL U.S. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BROKEN
TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS FROM WELL W OF 140W BEING TRANSPORTED 
INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA BY JETSTREAM WINDS. THESE CLOUDS
ARE IDENTIFIED TO BE WITHIN ABOUT 300 NM S OF THE JETSTREAM 
BRANCH. IN THE TROPICS...ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS 
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 90W-105W. THE REMAINDER OF THE E 
PACIFIC AREA HAS MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  
   
A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 29N121W. A WEAK SURFACE 
TROUGH IS FURTHER W OVER THE NW SECTION FROM 33N128W TO 27N129W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. 8 TO 11 FT NE 
SWELL ARE ACCOMPANYING THIS TROUGH. FURTHER S...NE TRADES OF 20 
KT ARE GENERALLY FROM 05N TO 12N W OF 133W...WITH SEAS IN THE 
10-11 FT RANGE. TRADES ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 
KT WITHIN 48 HOURS. E OF 110W...WINDS ARE DOMINATED BY GAP WIND 
FLOW SPILLING FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THEN 
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EPAC.

GAP WINDS... 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...20-25 KT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PULSE 
THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH 
STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. 

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN 
CONTINUE TO FUEL GAP WIND FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THEN 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND JUST DOWNWIND OF THE GULF 
FONSECA...EXTENDING WELL SW TO NEAR 93W...WITH DOWNWIND SEAS 
PRESENTLY AT 8 TO 9 FT. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

THE GULF OF PANAMA...TRADES IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA 
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PULSES OF FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS 
THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA AND ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA. SEAS ARE 
PRESENTLY LESS THAN 8 FT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 8 FT 
WITHIN 24 HOURS AND CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA