000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122143
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON MAR 12 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH IS NOT PRESENT ACROSS E PACIFIC. ITCZ AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM 03N98W TO 00N110W AND CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR. 
SCATTERED MODERATE IS FROM 01N TO 04N BETWEEN 94W AND 105W. 

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE NW SECTION N OF 20N W OF 120W. A 
70 TO 90 KT UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAM IS S OF THE TROUGH FROM 
17N140W TO NW MEXICO NEAR 30N110W WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUD. THE 
REMAINDER OF THE E PACIFIC AREA HAS MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WITH 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  
   
A WEAK 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 31N122W. A SURFACE TROUGH 
IS FURTHER W OVER THE NW SECTION FROM 33N128W TO 27N129W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. 8 TO 11 FT NE 
SWELL ARE ACCOMPANYING THIS TROUGH. FURTHER S... NE TRADES OF 20 
KT ARE GENERALLY FROM 05N TO 12N W OF 133W...WITH SEAS IN THE 
9-11 FT RANGE. TRADES ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 
KT WITHIN 48 HOURS. E OF 110W...WINDS ARE DOMINATED BY GAP WIND 
FLOW SPILLING FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THEN 
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EPAC...WITH WEAK WINDS S OF 05N.

GAP WINDS... 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...20-25 KT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PULSE 
THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH 
STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. 

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN 
CONTINUE TO FUEL GAP WIND FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THEN 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND JUST DOWNWIND OF THE GULF 
FONSECA...EXTENDING WELL SW TO NEAR 93W...WITH DOWNWIND SEAS 
PRESENTLY AT 8 TO 9 FT. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

THE GULF OF PANAMA...TRADES IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA 
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PULSES OF FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS 
THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA AND ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA. SEAS ARE 
PRESENTLY LESS THAN 8 FT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 8 FT 
WITHIN 24 HOURS AND CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA