000 AXPZ20 KNHC 102146 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT MAR 10 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2045 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE PRIMARILY ITCZ WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS JUST S OF THE EQUATOR. AN ITCZ SEGMENT EXTENDS FROM 03N95W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ SEGMENT. ...DISCUSSION... A LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW IS OVER THE DESERT SW SECTION OF THE U.S. WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS NW MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 22N110W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SW PORTIONS OF THIS TROUGH PREVAILING OVER THE EASTERN SECTION OF THE AREA...AND MAINTAINING VERY STABLE CONDITIONS...AND ALMOST ENTIRELY CLEAR SKIES N OF 20N E OF 120W. ELSEWHERE...RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW DOMINATED THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE AREA...WITH A BROAD RIDGE W OF 120W...A SECOND RIDGE IS E OF THE TROUGH FROM NEAR 07N100W ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND SE MEXICO INTO THE W GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUED FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SW INTO THE FAR EPAC THROUGH COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA...PRODUCING SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE CONDITIONS THERE. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL W OF THE AREA IS ACCOMPANIED BY A VERY LARGE SWATH OF DEEP LAYER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO ITS E AND SE. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SW WINDS WERE ADVECTING THIS MOISTURE NE TO JUST OVER THE FAR WESTERN BOUNDARY OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WASH OUT THROUGH SUN AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL FOLLOWS THE FRONT AND ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE NW WATERS RAISING SEAS 9-12 FT. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDED THROUGH 31N140W SE ACROSS THE STATIONARY FRONT TO NEAR 15N110W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT TO THE S OF THE RIDGE WAS INDUCING NE-E 20-25 KT TRADE WINDS FROM 04N-20N W OF 120W...AND FROM 07N-18N BETWEEN 112W AND 120W...WITH SEAS GENERALLY 9-12 FT. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...THEN DIMINISH BOTH IN AREAL COVERAGE AND IN WIND SPEEDS BY 48 HRS AS THE HIGH WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT THAT SKIRTS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS AT THAT TIME. GAP WINDS... THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE BASE ON THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS THAT SHOWED 20-25 KT WINDS THERE. THESE WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN ABOUT 24 HRS. THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO FUEL GAP WIND FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THEN THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND WELL DOWNWIND TO NEAR 93W. WINDS ARE GENERALLY 20-25 KT...WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE GULF OF PANAMA...TRADES IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PULSES OF FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA AND ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA AND DOWNWIND TOWARDS THE SW DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS....WHERE SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 6 TO 9 FT RANGE. LITTLE CHANGE HERE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. $$ GR