000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100331
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT MAR 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ IS ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 90W AND 110W...AND S OF 
THE EQUATOR ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N 
TO 05N BETWEEN 94W AND 98W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE NW REGION N OF 25N W OF 125W. 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FURTHER E...N OF 25N BETWEEN 110W AND 
125W MOVING E. IN THE TROPICS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE IS S OF 30N E 
OF 120W. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE EASTERN 
PACIFIC SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL 
WINDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO BECOME MORE ZONAL OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. 

AT THE SURFACE...A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF 
CALIFORNIA NEAR 32N130W. FURTHER W...A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY 
FRONT JUST REACHED THE NW REGION FROM 32N136W TO BEYOND 29N140W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. THIS 
FRONT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. 

GAP WINDS... 
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
EXISTS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE THAT
IS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL WATERS AND LOWER PRESSURE THAT IS IN 
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS GRADIENT IS BRINGING 20 TO 25 KT 
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS NORTH OF 23N. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 
KT WITHIN 24 HOURS. 

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTH-TO-NORTHEASTERLY GALE-FORCE 
WINDS WILL BEGIN IN ABOUT 06 HOURS. EXPECT THE GALE TO BE SHORT 
LIVED AND LAST FOR LESS THAN 24 HOURS BEFORE DECREASING TO 30 
KT. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 20 KT 12 HOURS LATER. 

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...COASTAL LAND STATIONS IN NORTHWESTERN 
COSTA RICA AND A 1806 UTC OSCAT IS SHOWING 20 TO 25 KT GAP WINDS 
OVER NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL 
NICARAGUA...REACHING AS FAR WEST AS 92W IN THE E PACIFIC. A 
LARGE AREA OF NORTHEASTERLY SWELL HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED IN THE 
TROPICAL NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN TO 110W DUE TO THE COMBINED 
INFLUENCE OF THE EARLIER TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO GAP WIND 
EVENTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA SUSTAINING STRONG TRADEWINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN. SUBSEQUENT 
GAP WINDS WILL LAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE GULF OF PANAMA...STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN 
CARIBBEAN SEA WILL MAINTAIN SPURTS OF FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW 
ACROSS THE PANAMA ISTHMUS AND INTO THE BAY OF PANAMA THROUGH
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA