000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090312
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI MAR 09 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ IS ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 95W AND 100W. THE ITCZ IS 
S OF THE EQUATOR ELSEWHERE. NO MONSOON TROUGH WAS ANALYZED. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. 

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE NW REGION N OF 20N W OF 130W. 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FURTHER E...N OF 20N BETWEEN 110W AND 
130W MOVING E. IN THE TROPICS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE IS S OF 30N E 
OF 110W. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE EASTERN 
PACIFIC SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL 
WINDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO BECOME MORE ZONAL OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. 

AT THE SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA OFF 
THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 35N126W. FURTHER W...A COLD FRONT 
IS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE NW REGION ALONG 40N135W 30N141W 
23N150W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF 
THE FRONT S OF 32N. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO BECOME 
QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

GAP WINDS... 

THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER 
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING 20 TO 30 KT NW WINDS OVER 
THE ENTIRE GULF AND CONTINUING S TO 20N E OF 110W.  THE WINDS 
WILL DIMINISH IN 48 HOURS...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS TO THE 
NORTH.

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...20 KT NE WINDS WILL START OVER THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN 24 HOURS FOLLOWED SHORTLY IN 30 HOURS 
WITH A GALE FORECAST TO START ON THE 10/0600 UTC. THE GALE WILL 
LAST FOR AT LEAST 12 HOURS. 20 TO 30 KT WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A 2342 UTC WINDSAT PASS SHOWED 20 KT GAP 
WIND FLOW IN NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA AND THE COAST OF NICARAGUA 
...REACHING AS FAR WEST INTO THE PACIFIC AS 92W. A LARGE AREA OF 
NORTHEASTERLY SWELL HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED IN THE TROPICAL NORTH 
PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 110W DUE TO THE COMBINED INFLUENCE 
OF THE EARLIER TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO GAP WINDS EVENTS. HIGH 
PRESSURE THAT IS BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WILL 
MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE WINDS THAT WILL FUEL THE PAPAGAYO EVENT 
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AND MAINTAIN THE 
NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY SWELL IN THE DOWNSTREAM PLUME.

THE GULF OF PANAMA...STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN 
CARIBBEAN SEA WILL MAINTAIN SPURTS OF FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW 
ACROSS THE PANAMA ISTHMUS AND INTO THE BAY OF PANAMA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. 

$$
FORMOSA