000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082203
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU MAR 08 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ IS ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 95W AND 100W. THE ITCZ IS 
S OF THE EQUATOR ELSEWHERE. NO MONSOON TROUGH WAS ANALYZED. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. 

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
CUT-OFF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO
AND THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...TO 29N119W IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...TO 18N134W. THE FAR NORTHERN PART
OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...BEYOND 32N130W 41N129W...INTO THE 
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND BRITISH COLUMBIA...IS SHIFTING 
EASTWARD. THIS RIDGE IS TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY IS TO THE WEST 
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
36N132W. THIS HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD TO 34N127W 
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...GENERALLY FROM 05N
TO 20N TO THE WEST OF 115W THROUGH FRIDAY. A BROAD MIX OF SWELL
ALSO WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST
OF 110W...AS FRESH NORTHEASTERLY SWELL FROM THE TRADE WIND FLOW
INTERACTS WITH LONGER PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL...AND SOME
SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENTS CROSS THE EQUATOR AS FAR TO THE NORTH
AS 05N. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...POSSIBLY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
IS FORECAST TO STALL AND DISSIPATE DURING THE REST OF THE TIME 
PERIOD. A FRESH ROUND OF NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE 
FRONT. 

THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS 
WAY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE GULF...FOLLOWED BY FRESH 
TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
THAT IS BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA OF THE GREAT BASIN
AND TROUGHING IN NORTHERN MEXICO. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH INTO 
THE WEEKEND...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS TO THE NORTH.

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...20 KT NE WINDS PERSIST OVER THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC. A GALE IS FORECAST TO START ON THE 10/0900 UTC 
AND LAST FOR AT LEAST 12 HOURS. 20 TO 30 KT WINDS WILL CONTINUE  
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A 0256 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED 20 KT GAP 
WIND FLOW IN NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA AND THE COAST OF 
NICARAGUA...REACHING AS FAR WEST INTO THE PACIFIC AS 90W.
A LARGE AREA OF NORTHEASTERLY SWELL HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED IN THE
TROPICAL NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 110W DUE TO THE 
COMBINED INFLUENCE OF THE EARLIER TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO GAP 
WINDS EVENTS. HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE WINDS THAT WILL 
FUEL THE PAPAGAYO EVENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AND 
MAINTAIN THE NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY SWELL IN THE DOWNSTREAM 
PLUME.

THE GULF OF PANAMA...STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN 
CARIBBEAN SEA WILL MAINTAIN SPURTS OF FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW 
ACROSS THE PANAMA ISTHMUS AND INTO THE BAY OF PANAMA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. 

$$
FORMOSA