000 AXPZ20 KNHC 081547 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC THU MAR 08 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MAJORITY OF THE ITCZ IS TO THE SOUTH OF EQUATOR. THE ONLY PART OF THE ITCZ THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE EQUATOR IS ALONG 00N90W 01N102W 00N107W. NO MONSOON TROUGH WAS ANALYZED. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 02N TO 03N BETWEEN 113W AND 114W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 1N132W AND FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 132W AND 136W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO CUT-OFF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...TO 29N119W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...TO 18N134W. THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...BEYOND 32N130W 41N129W...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND BRITISH COLUMBIA...IS SHIFTING EASTWARD. THIS RIDGE IS TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY IS TO THE WEST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 36N132W. THIS HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD TO 34N127W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST TO THE SOUTH OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...GENERALLY FROM 05N TO 20N TO THE WEST OF 115W THROUGH FRIDAY. A BROAD MIX OF SWELL ALSO WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 110W...AS FRESH NORTHEASTERLY SWELL FROM THE TRADE WIND FLOW INTERACTS WITH LONGER PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL...AND SOME SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENTS CROSS THE EQUATOR AS FAR TO THE NORTH AS 05N. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...POSSIBLY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL AND DISSIPATE DURING THE REST OF THE TIME PERIOD. A FRESH ROUND OF NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE GULF...FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA OF THE GREAT BASIN AND TROUGHING IN NORTHERN MEXICO. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS TO THE NORTH. THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE LATEST LAND BASED OBSERVATIONS AT SALINA CRUZ ON THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE TEHUANTEPEC ISTHMUS HAVE BEEN INDICATING PEAK NORTHERLY WIND SPEEDS REACHING INTO THE LOW-TO-MIDDLE TEENS IN KNOTS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A BRIEF RESURGENCE TO 20 KNOTS MAY OCCUR EARLY ON FRIDAY MORNING. A STRONGER PUSH OF NORTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR ON EARLY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A 0256 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED 20 KT GAP WIND FLOW IN NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA AND THE COAST OF NICARAGUA...REACHING AS FAR WEST INTO THE PACIFIC AS 90W. A LARGE AREA OF NORTHEASTERLY SWELL HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED IN THE TROPICAL NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 110W DUE TO THE COMBINED INFLUENCE OF THE EARLIER TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO GAP WINDS EVENTS. HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE WINDS THAT WILL FUEL THE PAPAGAYO EVENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AND MAINTAIN THE NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY SWELL IN THE DOWNSTREAM PLUME. THE GULF OF PANAMA...STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WILL MAINTAIN SPURTS OF FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PANAMA ISTHMUS AND INTO THE BAY OF PANAMA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. $$ MT