000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081004
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU MAR 08 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ IS SOUTH OF EQUATOR. NO MONSOON TROUGH ANALYZED. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY 
AMPLIFIED N OF 20N. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CUT OFF 
LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST UNITED 
STATES...TO ROUGHLY 20N135W. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF AN UPPER 
RIDGE...FROM 20N140W ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC TO BRITISH 
COLUMBIA...IS SHIFTING EAST AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS UPPER 
DISTURBANCE PUSHING FROM THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO THE NE 
PACIFIC. 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER 
RIDGE NEAR 37N130W WILL SHIFT SE TO 33N125W...AHEAD OF A COLD 
FRONT NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER 
DISTURBANCE. FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF THE SURFACE 
HIGH PRES...GENERALLY FROM 05N TO 20N W OF 115W THROUGH FRI. A 
BROAD MIX OF SWELL WILL ALSO PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 
110W...AS FRESH NE SWELL FROM THE TRADE WIND FLOW INTERACTS WITH 
LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL...AND SOME SW COMPONENTS CROSS THE 
EQUATOR AS FAR N AS 05N. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE FAR 
NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BY LATE FRI...BUT STALL FROM 
30N135W TO 27N140W INTO SAT FOLLOWED A FRESH ROUND OF NW SWELL.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY 
SOUTH DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE GULF...FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG 
NW WINDS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TODAY AS THE PRES 
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE AREA OF 
THE GREAT BASIN AND TROUGHING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE WINDS 
WILL DIMINISH INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS TO THE 
NORTH.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...LAND BASED OBSERVATIONS AT SALINA CRUZ ON 
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE TEHUANTEPEC ISTHMUS HAVE BEEN 
INDICATING PEAK N WINDS UP TO 20 KT...HINTING OF LINGERING FRESH 
GAP WIND FLOW OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS WILL DIMINISH 
BY LATE MORNING...WITH A BRIEF RESURGENCE TO 20 KT EARLY FRI 
MORNING. A STRONGER PUSH OF N WINDS WILL OCCUR BY EARLY SAT AS 
HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND THE WESTERN 
GULF OF MEXICO.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A 0256 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED 20 KT GAP FLOW 
OVER PRETTY MUCH NW COSTA RICA AND THE COAST OF 
NICARAGUA...REACHING AS FAR WEST INTO THE PACIFIC AS 90W. A 
LARGE AREA OF NE SWELL HAS SET UP OVER THE TROPICAL N PACIFIC E 
OF 110W DUE TO THE COMBINED INFLUENCE OF THE EARLIER TEHUANTEPEC 
AND PAPAGAYO GAP WINDS EVENTS. HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE 
CARIBBEAN WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADES THAT WILL FUEL THE 
PAPAGAYO EVENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AND MAINTAIN THE 
NE TO E SWELL IN THE DOWNSTREAM PLUME.

GULF OF PANAMA...STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN 
CARIBBEAN WILL MAINTAIN SPURTS OF FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS 
THE PANAMA ISTHMUS AND INTO THE BAY OF PANAMA THROUGH THE 
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN