000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062155
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE MAR 06 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS NOT EVIDENT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AT THE 
PRESENT TIME AS IT REMAINS SUPPRESSED TO S OF THE EQUATOR. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA N OF 
04N E OF 78W. SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 85W AND 
87W. 


...DISCUSSION...

A MID/UPPER LEVEL WEAKENING TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW U.S. SW
TO 23N121W...AND S TO 11N121W TO S OF OF THE EQUATOR AT 
122W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE AREA BEHIND THE 
TROUGH. A SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW REGION OF THE 
U.S. WILL DROP SEWD WHILE SHARPENING DURING THE NEXT 12-48 HRS 
ALLOWING FOR THE AREA OF HIGH PRES RIDGING TO AMPLIFY NWD. THIS 
IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR A CUT OFF LOW WELL W OF THE AREA N OF THE 
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TO LIFT NWD IN BECOME ABSORBED INTO ANOTHER 
SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH. THE TROUGH PRESENTLY OVER THE NW U.S. 
WILL DEVELOP A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY 
MIDDAY WED. A RELATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING SWD TO JUST 
OVER THE NE PART OF THE AREA FROM NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 
24N125W BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN A ROUND 
OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW AND A NEW ROUND OF NORTH 
SWELL. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH WED AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER 
DYNAMICS THEN LIFT NE OF THE AREA. 

AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MENTIONED ABOVE AMPLIFIES...SURFACE
RIDGING ACROSS THE MOST OF THE AREA WILL ALSO INTENSIFY INTO WED
...THEN SHIFT EWD LATE WED AND THU AS THE PARENT HIGH CENTER N 
OF THE REGION SHIFTS SE AND WEAKENS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 
THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE REGION BY THU WITH SLY WINDS TO 20 KT. 
THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN JUST NW OF THE AREA
BY LATE THU. WITH THE HIGH STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS FROM 03N TO 
23N W OF 130W WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS A RESULT OVER THE NEXT 48 
HOURS. 

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COOL AIR MASS BEHIND A GULF OF MEXICO 
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIVE A STRONG GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE 
CHIVELA PASS THIS EVENING...THEN THROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. N-NE GALE FORCE WINDS OF 30-40 KT ARE 
FORECAST UNTIL EARLY WED WHEN WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 25-35 KT. 
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN GALE FORCE BY LATE WED. BY THU...N-NE 20 
KT WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH SEAS 
TO 8 FT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NELY WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AT
20-30 KT CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SPREAD SW...AND ARE FORCING 
SCATTERED TSTMS FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 85W AND 87W. THESE NE 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TO 25 KT OVER THE NEXT 
24 HRS AND CONTINUE INTO 48 HRS WITH SEAS TO 11 FT. THESE NE 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE DOWNWIND PLUME GENERATED 
FROM TEHUANTEPEC. 

GULF OF PANAMA...20-25 KT TRADE WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL 
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRES 
BUILDING N OF THE AREA. THESE WINDS WILL PUSH SWD ACROSS THE 
PANAMA ISTHMUS AND INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH WED REACHING 
POSSIBLY AS FAR S AS 04N.

$$
FORMOSA