000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061750 AAA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1750 UTC TUE MAR 06 2012

UPDATED ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH FOR CONVECTION
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...UPDATED 

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS NOT EVIDENT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AT THE 
PRESENT TIME AS IT REMAINS SUPPRESSED TO S OF THE EQUATOR. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM
06N-07N BETWEEN 85W-87W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID/UPPER LEVEL WEAKENING TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW U.S. SW
TO 23N121W...AND S TO 11N121W TO S OF OF THE EQUATOR AT 
122W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE AREA BEHIND THE 
TROUGH. A SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW REGION OF THE 
U.S. WILL DROP SEWD WHILE SHARPENING DURING THE NEXT 12-48 HRS 
ALLOWING FOR THE AREA OF HIGH PRES RIDGING TO AMPLIFY NWD. THIS 
IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR A CUT OFF LOW WELL W OF THE AREA N OF THE 
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TO LIFT NWD IN BECOME ABSORBED INTO ANOTHER 
SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH. THE TROUGH PRESENTLY OVER THE NW U.S. 
WILL DEVELOP A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY 
MIDDAY WED. A RELATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING SWD TO JUST 
OVER THE NE PART OF THE AREA FROM NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 
24N125W BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN A ROUND 
OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW AND A NEW ROUND OF NORTH 
SWELL. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH WED AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER 
DYNAMICS THEN LIFT NE OF THE AREA. 

AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MENTIONED ABOVE AMPLIFIES...SURFACE
RIDGING ACROSS THE MOST OF THE AREA WILL ALSO INTENSIFY INTO WED
...THEN SHIFT EWD LATE WED AND THU AS THE PARENT HIGH CENTER N 
OF THE REGION SHIFTS SE AND WEAKENS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 
THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE REGION BY THU WITH SLY WINDS TO 20 KT. 
THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN JUST NW OF THE AREA
BY LATE THU. WITH THE HIGH STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS FROM 03N TO 
23N W OF 130W WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS A RESULT OVER THE NEXT 48 
HOURS. 

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COOL AIR MASS BEHIND A GULF OF MEXICO 
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIVE A STRONG GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE 
CHIVELA PASS THIS MORNING...THEN THROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT JUST INLAND
THE GULF ALONG DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
COMBINED WITH POSSIBLE RESIDUAL EARLY MORNING LOCAL DRAINAGE
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN N-NE GALE FORCE WINDS OF 30-45 KT 
THROUGH THE GULF THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING
TO 30-40 KT BY EARLY THIS EVENING...TO 25-35 KT BY EARLY
WED AND TO LESS THAN GALE FORCE BY LATE WED. BY THU...N-NE 20 KT
WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH SEAS
TO 8 FT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NELY WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AT 20
-30 KT CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SPREAD SW...AND ARE FORCING 
SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 07N85W. THESE NE WINDS 
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TO 25 KT OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS 
AND CONTINUE INTO 48 HRS WITH SEAS TO 11 FT. THESE NE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE DOWNWIND PLUME GENERATED FROM 
TEHUANTEPEC. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE PRES GRADIENT BEHIND THE 
GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT EXPANDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH 
TODAY. 

GULF OF PANAMA...TRADE WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL INCREASE 
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRES BUILDING N 
OF THE AREA. SOME OF THIS MOMENTUM WILL PUSH SWD ACROSS THE 
PANAMA ISTHMUS AND INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH WED REACHING 
POSSIBLY AS FAR S AS 04N.

$$
AGUIRRE