000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060933
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE MAR 06 2012
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS NOT EVIDENT ACROSS THE EPAC ATTM. THE ITCZ 
CONTINUES TO MEANDER BACK AND FORTH NEAR THE EQUATOR W OF 
92W...AND IS PRESENTLY ENTIRELY S OF THE EQUATOR. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION NOTED ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ N OF THE EQUATOR. 
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 93W AND 98W.

...DISCUSSION...

A SHARP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN 
ROCKIES SW TO 40N140W...THEN ON TO A QUASI-STATIONARY CUT OFF 
LOW N OF HAWAII NEAR 35N155W. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE 
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES...EVENTUALLY 
FORMING A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA BY MIDDAY WED. 
A RELATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH TO 28N W OF 125W BY LATE 
TUE...FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW AND A NEW ROUND 
OF NORTH SWELL. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH WED AS THE 
SUPPORTING UPPER DYNAMICS LIFT NE OF THE AREA. 

A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NW PACIFIC IN THE WAKE OF 
THE TROUGH TODAY...WITH WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH DROPPING 
SOUTHWARD FROM THE FAR NW PACIFIC TO 35N130W BY MIDDAY THU. THE 
FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT 
WILL DIMINISH...LEAVING DECAYING NORTHERLY SWELL IN THE WATERS N 
OF 20N W OF 125W BY THU. TRADE WINDS FROM 05N TO 15N W OF 130W 
WILL EXPAND WESTWARD AS A RESULT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COOL AIR MASS BEHIND A GULF OF MEXICO 
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIVE STRONG GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE 
CHIVELA PASS THIS MORNING...THEN THROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A 0640 UTC OSCAT PASS CAPTURED A LARGE 
PORTION OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND SHOWED 35 KT GALE FORCE 
WINDS. THESE WINDS MAY BE INCREASING SLIGHTLY EARLY THIS MORNING 
DUE TO LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS NEAR THE COAST...AND AS 
REINFORCING HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND SE GULF OF 
MEXICO. GALES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH WED MORNING BEFORE 
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 20 KT DURING BY WED AFTERNOON. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NELY WIND THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AT 20 
TO 25 KT CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SPREAD SW...AND ARE FORCING 
SCATTERED TSTMS FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 93W AND 98W. THESE NE 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT ON TUE AND SPREAD 
SOUTHWESTWARD AND DOWNWIND BEYOND 450 NM...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 
12 FT. THIS PLUME OF NELY WINDS WILL MERGE WITH THE DOWNWIND 
PLUME GENERATED FROM TEHUANTEPEC. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT EXPANDS 
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH TODAY. 

GULF OF PANAMA...TRADE WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL INCREASE 
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRES BUILDING N 
OF THE AREA. SOME OF THIS MOMENTUM WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PANAMA 
ISTHMUS AND INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH WED.  

$$
CHRISTENSEN