000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060340 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC TUE MAR 06 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS NOT EVIDENT ACROSS THE EPAC ATTM. THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO MEANDER BACK AND FORTH NEAR THE EQUATOR W OF 92W...AND IS PRESENTLY ENTIRELY S OF THE EQUATOR. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ N OF THE EQUATOR. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN 84W AND 96W. ...DISCUSSION... IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A VIGOROUS MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH N OF 24N WAS MOVING E-NE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INTO SW ARIZONA...WITH MEAN TROUGH AXIS TRAILING SW TO 19N127W. THIS SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO COME INTO PHASE WITH A SHARP LONG WAVE TROUGH MIGRATING FROM THE FAR NW PACIFIC SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS HELPED TO SHIFT FARTHER EASTWARD THE UPPER RIDGE RECENTLY PREVAILING ACROSS E PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ON AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 06N98W EXTENDING N THEN N-NW INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE SW U.S. A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW HAS ENTERED NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA N OF 22N ALONG 136W. AT THE SURFACE...THE 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N136W THIS AFTERNOON HAS COLLAPSED NEAR THAT LOCATION AS FRONTAL SYSTEMS APPROACHED THE AREA BOTH FROM THE N AND THE W. THE PRES GRADIENT TO THE S OF THE LINGERING RIDGE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE FRESH NE TRADEWINDS S AND SW OF THE OLD HIGH ACROSS AND SHRINKING AREA FROM 06N TO 16N W OF 134W. TRADEWINDS WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE AGAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA S OF 20N W OF 110W ON TUE AND WED. A COLD FRONT IS N OF THE AREA ALONG 38N133W AND MOVING S AND SE. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST INTO THE WATERS N OF 28N BY LATE WED...ACCOMPANIED BY FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND A NEW PULSE OF NW TO N SWELL. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WED INTO THU N OF 25N E OF 125W. FURTHER E...A 1015 MB LOW PRES CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE HAS DISSIPATED AT THE SURFACE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING S TO NEAR 24N116W. THIS BENIGN FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE E INTO NW MEXICO IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND DISSIPATE. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COOL AIR MASS BEHIND A GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIVE STRONG GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS THIS EVENING...THEN THROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A 1632 UTC ASCAT PASS CAPTURED A LARGE PORTION OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND SHOWED 40 KT GALE FORCE WINDS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE GALES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 45 KT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS REINFORCING HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND SE GULF OF MEXICO. GALES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH WED MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO AROUND 20 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NELY WIND THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AT 20 TO 25 KT CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SPREAD SW...AND ARE FORCING SCATTERED TSTMS DESCRIBED ABOVE IN THE ITCZ SECTION. THESE NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT ON TUE AND SPREAD SOUTHWESTWARD AND DOWNWIND BEYOND 450 NM...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT. THIS PLUME OF NELY WINDS WILL MERGE WITH THE DOWNWIND PLUME GENERATED FROM TEHUANTEPEC. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT EXPANDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. GULF OF PANAMA...TRADE WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE AREA. SOME OF THIS MOMENTUM WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PANAMA ISTHMUS AND INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA OVERNIGHT THROUGH LATE TUE. $$ STRIPLING