000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052213
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON MAR 05 2012
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2115 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS NOT EVIDENT ACROSS THE EPAC ATTM. THE ITCZ 
CONTINUES TO MEANDER BACK AND FORTH NEAR THE EQUATOR W OF 
92W...AND IS PRESENTLY ENTIRELY S OF THE EQUATOR. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 04N TO 08N E OF 80W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 01N TO 06N BETWEEN 82W AND 
89W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 00N TO 03N 
BETWEEN 104W AND 109W.

...DISCUSSION...

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A VIGOROUS MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH N 
OF 24N WAS MOVING E-NE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN 
BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH MEAN TROUGH AXIS TRAILING SW TO 19N128W. 
THIS SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO COME INTO PHASE WITH A SHARP LONG 
WAVE TROUGH MIGRATING FROM THE FAR NW PACIFIC SOUTHEASTWARD 
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS 
HELPED TO SHIFT FARTHER EASTWARD THE UPPER RIDGE RECENTLY 
PREVAILING ACROSS E PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS RIDGE REMAINS 
ANCHORED ON AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 06N99W EXTENDING N THEN NW 
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE SW U.S. A SECOND SHORTWAVE 
TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING 
THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA. 

AT THE SURFACE...A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 35N136W. THE 
PRES GRADIENT TO THE S OF THE HIGH IS PRODUCING FRESH NE 
TRADEWINDS S AND SW OF THE HIGH 05N TO 16N W OF 130W. TRADEWINDS 
WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE AGAIN OVER MUCH OF 
THE AREA S OF 20N W OF 110W ON TUE AND WED. A COLD FRONT IS W OF 
THE AREA ALONG 32N143W AND MOVING E. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH 
SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST INTO THE WATERS N OF 28N BY 
LATE WED...ACCOMPANIED BY FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND A 
NEW PUSH OF NW TO N SWELL. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WED INTO THU 
N OF 25N E OF 125W. FURTHER E...A 1015 MB LOW PRES CENTER 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WAS LOCATED ACROSS 
NORTHERN BAJA NEAR 30.5N114.5W WITH FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING SW 
TO NEAR 22N120W. THIS BENIGN FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE E INTO NW 
MEXICO IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND DISSIPATE. 

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COOL AIR MASS BEHIND A GULF OF MEXICO 
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIVE STRONG GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE 
CHIVELA PASS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN THROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A 1632 UTC ASCAT PASS CAPTURED A LARGE 
PORTION OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND SHOWED 40 KT GALE FORCE 
WINDS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE GALES WILL PERSIST 
THROUGH WED MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO AROUND 20 KT DURING 
THE AFTERNOON. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NELY WIND THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE 20 
TO 25 KT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT ON TUE 
AS THEY SPREAD SOUTHWESTWARD AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF BEYOND 450 
NM...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT. THIS PLUME OF NELY WINDS WILL 
MERGE WITH THE DOWNWIND PLUME GENERATED FROM TEHUANTEPEC. THIS 
WILL OCCUR AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE GULF OF MEXICO 
COLD FRONT EXPANDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TODAY AND MONDAY. 

GULF OF PANAMA...TRADE WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL INCREASE 
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRES BUILDING N 
OF THE AREA. SOME OF THIS MOMENTUM WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PANAMA 
ISTHMUS AND INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA OVERNIGHT THROUGH LATE TUE.  

$$
STRIPLING