000 AXPZ20 KNHC 041005 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SUN MAR 04 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... ITCZ FROM 00N95W TO 03N120W TO 00N130W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 100W...AND WITHIN 60 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 112W AND 115W. ...DISCUSSION... A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST...THEN SW ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA...TO AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 04N99W. THE RIDGE IS DECOUPLING FROM AN ASSOCIATED 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 40N130W...AND AHEAD OF A SHARP DEEP LAYER TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF HAWAII IN THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE NW PACIFIC...LEAVING A CUTOFF UPPER LOW N OF HAWAII NEAR 36N150W. A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TRADE WINDS BETWEEN ROUGHLY 05N TO 20N W OF 120W WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND AREAL EXTENT AS THE SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SOUTH. THE SURFACE PRES WILL BUILD BY MID WEEK AS THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE NW PACIFIC ALONG 140W. TRADE WINDS REBOUND FROM 05N TO 20N W OF 110W BY WED ACCORDINGLY. MEANWHILE A BROAD AREA OF NW SWELL MIXING WITH FRESHER NE SWELL IN THE AREA OF TRADES WILL DECAY GRADUALLY THROUGH WED. MEANWHILE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PERSISTS NEAR THE ITCZ S OF 05N BETWEEN 95W AND 100W...AIDED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT NEAR THE CENTER OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 04N99W. WEAK UPPER TROUGHING IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT IS WORKING IN CONCERT WITH THE TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE FURTHER WEST TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W AND 115W. GAP WINDS... GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A 1004 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED OVER W CENTRAL MEXICO WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL OVER NW MEXICO. NW GALES PERSIST THIS MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 24N TO 27N...BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE EAST...AND 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THESE WINDS DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE THIS MORNING...AND BELOW 20 KT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE PRES GRADIENT LOOSENS BETWEEN THESE WEAKENING FEATURES. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COOL AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER E CENTRAL MEXICO IS PUSHING STRONG GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS THIS MORNING AND INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. PEAK WINDS AT COATZACOALCOS ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE TEHUANTEPEC ISTHMUS ARE REACHING 38 KT. LATEST WINDS AT SALINA CRUZ ON THE SOUTHERN TERMINUS OF THE ISTHMUS HAVE YET TO SHOW ANYTHING ABOVE 20 KT...BUT THAT WILL CHANGE THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE STRONG HIGH PRES AND COOLER AIR FILTERING SOUTH...WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL REACH STORM FORCE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 21 FT. A LONG PLUME OF WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT WILL PUSH S THEN SW...REACHING AS FAR AS 10N100W BY TUE. NE SWELL WILL BUILD IN THE PLUME...MIXING WITH LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL THROUGH MID WEEK. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO GALE FORCE BY TUE...AND BELOW GALE FORCE WED. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY EXPANDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA SUN NIGHT...WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...AND THEN 20-30 KT BY MONDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD SW AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF BEYOND 300 NM BY MIDDAY MONDAY...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT. $$ CHRISTENSEN